Penn State (3-0) at Maryland (2-1)
When: Friday, September 27, 2019
Where: Capital One Field,
College Park, MD
Time: 8:00 ET | TV: FS1
Opening Odds: Penn State -6.5/57
The Penn State Nittany Lions and Maryland Terrapins are two Big Ten teams who are trying to find their identity and they will know soon enough who they really are when they open conference play Friday night in College Park, Md. The Terps scored a ton of points in easy wins over Howard and Syracuse to start the season, but couldn’t solve the Temple defense in a 20-17 setback two weeks ago. Maryland will have a big homefield advantage in this Friday night contest, with classes being canceled and a black-out crowd expected for the 12th-ranked Nittany Lions. The road hasn’t been smooth for Penn State either. After a dominating 79-7 win over FCS-member Idaho to open the season, Penn State trailed Buffalo at halftime before cruising to victory, then need a goal-line stand to fend-off rival Pittsburgh 17-10. The Nittany Lions are 39-2-1 all-time against Maryland including a 38-3 win last year that kept the Terps from begin bowl-eligible. Penn State has taken four straight meetings, including wins in the last two years by a combined 104-6.
Replacing a quarterback like Trace McSorley isn’t easy and that position has taken a step back so far in 2019 behind Sean Clifford. The sophomore signal-caller struggled to 14-of-30 for 222 yards and no touchdowns against Pitt after completing 66.7 percent of his passes with six touchdowns through the first two games. The Lions had Saquon Barkley two years ago and Miles Sanders last year, so the reigns appear to be in Journey Brown’s hands for now after he rushed 10 times for a career-high 109 yards against Pittsburgh. Defense is still the key to Penn State’s success this season and have been stingy against the run (70.7), but rank 94th against the pass (252.7). The Lions will host Purdue next week.
The Maryland defense has been pretty similar to Penn State’s through three games, ranking 10th in rush defense and 63rd against the pass (224.7). Senior linebacker Antoine Brooks entered the week ranked sixth in the country with 7.3 solo tackles per game, while junior linebacker Keandre Jones was tied for eighth with 1.17 sacks per contest. Offensively, the Terrapins are being led by a solid running game behind Anthony McFarland Jr. (225 yards, five touchdowns) and rank eighth in the country in that category (277.3 yards a game). Quarterback Josh Jackson was 15-for-38 with an interception and four sacks against Temple and will need a better showing against Penn State.
Penn State opened their Big Ten slate last year on a Friday night in a hostile enviornment at Illinois and struggled in the first half before taking over. I can see the same thing happening here at Maryland. The crowd and atmosphere will keep the Terps in it for a while, but the Nittany Lions will pull away in the second half.
Pick: Penn State -6.5 (More Week 5 Free Picks)
Betting Trends:
Nittany Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Nittany Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
Nittany Lions are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Nittany Lions are 23-6-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a straight up win.
Nittany Lions are 16-6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Nittany Lions are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Nittany Lions are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Nittany Lions are 26-11-2 ATS in their last 39 games overall.
Nittany Lions are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 conference games.
Nittany Lions are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Nittany Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
Terrapins are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Terrapins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Terrapins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Terrapins are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
Terrapins are 6-15 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Terrapins are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a bye week.
Over is 4-0 in Nittany Lions last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Nittany Lions last 4 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 5-0 in Nittany Lions last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 7-1 in Nittany Lions last 8 road games.
Over is 6-1 in Nittany Lions last 7 games on fieldturf.
Over is 5-1 in Nittany Lions last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 12-4 in Nittany Lions last 16 games following a straight up win.
Over is 8-3 in Nittany Lions last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Over is 8-3 in Nittany Lions last 11 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Nittany Lions last 7 games in September.
Over is 5-2 in Nittany Lions last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 16-7 in Nittany Lions last 23 games overall.
Under is 4-0 in Terrapins last 4 Friday games.
Over is 4-0 in Terrapins last 4 games on fieldturf.
Over is 6-0 in Terrapins last 6 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Terrapins last 5 home games.
Over is 4-1 in Terrapins last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 8-3 in Terrapins last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 5-2 in Terrapins last 7 games following a straight up loss.
