New England (3-2) at NY Jets (3-2)
When: Sunday, October 15th 2017
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Time: 1:00 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: New England -10.5/47
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Preseason predictions had some experts thinking the New England Patriots would finish 16-0, while the New York Jets would plummet to 0-16, but we have reached Week 6, and both teams are battling for first place in the AFC East at 3-2. New York squeezed out a 17-14 victory at winless Cleveland last week to earn their third consecutive victory, but they’ll get a Patriots team that will have an extra three days rest. The Patriots, who already have lost twice at home, are averaging an NFL-best 419.4 yards per game but are also surrendering a league-worst 447.2. Quarterback Tom Brady suffered an injury to his non-throwing shoulder in a 19-14 victory at Tampa Bay last Thursday night, but said he will be ready when New England goes for its 11th win in 13 regular-season meetings against their AFC East rivals. Brady has 26 touchdowns passes against only four interceptions in his last 13 matchups against New York.
New England owns the top-ranked passing attack in the league and Brady has thrown for an NFL-best 1,702 yards, but he’s also been hit a lot more this year (16 sacks through the five games, one more than all of last season). Despite the absence of star tight end Rob Gronkowski, who is dealing with a thigh injury that caused him to sit out at Tampa Bay, Brady threw for 300 yards for the fifth consecutive game, although he was intercepted for the first time. Wide receiver Danny Amendola and Chris Hogan each had eight receptions versus the Buccaneers but speedster Brandin Cooks is the team’s most dangerous deep threat. Cooks has seven touchdowns in his last seven games versus AFC opponents. The Patriots have allowed an average of 36 points in three home games, but they have surrendered a combined 34 points in road wins at New Orleans and Tampa Bay.
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New York is averaging a 26th-best 300.8 yards of total offense per game and has allowed 14 more points than it has scored despite it’s winning 3-2 mark. Quarterback Josh McCown is with his fourth time in five seasons and has recorded a passer rating above 100 three times in five games, and ranks second in the NFL with a completion percentage of 71.4. The well-traveled QB could be without his top two running backs as Bilal Powell and Matt Forte are both nursing injuries. Former Seattle receiver Jermaine Kearse leads the Jets with 22 receptions and three touchdowns, while the defense, which has recorded only seven sacks, is ranked 30th in the league against the run. The Jets will hit the road next week and take on the Dolphins.
I don’t care that the Jets have won three in a row. This is still a bad football team. New England had a much improved defensive outing last time out against Tampa Bay and will have an easy time stopping New York in this one. The Patriots will roll.
Pick: Patriots -9
- Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Patriots are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.
- Patriots are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
- Patriots are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Patriots are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Patriots are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.
- Patriots are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 vs. AFC.
- Patriots are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Patriots are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
- Patriots are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Patriots are 41-17-3 ATS in their last 61 games in October.
- Patriots are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on fieldturf.
- Patriots are 78-38-2 ATS in their last 118 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in October.
- Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Jets are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0 in Patriots last 6 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 5-0 in Patriots last 5 vs. AFC.
- Over is 5-0 in Patriots last 5 games in Week 6.
- Over is 8-1 in Patriots last 9 games overall.
- Over is 6-1 in Patriots last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 64-28 in Patriots last 92 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 9-4 in Patriots last 13 road games.
- Over is 49-23 in Patriots last 72 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 47-23 in Patriots last 70 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Jets last 4 vs. AFC East.
- Under is 6-1 in Jets last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 7-2 in Jets last 9 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Under is 8-3 in Jets last 11 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Jets last 7 games overall.
- Under is 5-2 in Jets last 7 vs. AFC.
- Over is 5-2 in Jets last 7 games following a ATS win.
- Home team is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
- Over is 11-4-1 in the last 16 meetings.
- Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in New York.
- Patriots are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
- Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in New York.
