New England (9-4) at Indianapolis (7-6)
When: Saturday, December 18th 2021
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium,
Indianapolis, IN
Time: 8:20 ET | TV: NFLN
Opening Odds: New England -2.5/43.5
The NFL is giving us two games this coming Saturday and the second one should be terrific as the scorching New England Patriots visit the Indianapolis Colts in prime time. I probably shouldn’t slight the Colts, because they have catapulted themselves back into the playoff mix with wins in four of their last five games, however the competition hasn’t been stellar. They own wins over Houston, Jacksonville, the Jets and a nice win at Buffalo. Still, the Colts are doing what they need to do for a run at the postseason. They currently sit tied with four other teams at 7-6 for the final two spots. Indianapolis’ defense led the way last week in an easy 31-0 at the Houston, easily covering the 10-point spread and outgaining the Texans by 248 yards. The Colts will welcome back two-time Pro Bowl center Ryan Kelly this Saturday. Kelly missed the game with Houston after being placed on the COVID-19 list, but has since been removed.
Indy will be facing a Patriots team that has figured things out after a slow start. New England has won seven games in a row and will be coming in off a well-needed bye. The last time we saw the Patriots in action was the Monday night game in Buffalo where the weather played a significant role. New England’s Mac Jones threw the ball just three times in a blistering wind, so the team relied on a rushing attack that the Bills simply could not stop. The Patriots can clinch a playoff spot this weekend with a win and a combination of losses by multiple AFC contenders. New England has won eight straight games against the Colts including playoffs and are 5-1 ATS in the last six. Remarkably, the total has gone over nine times in a row and most were in the 50’s. This week’s total is set at 45.5.
Head coach Bill Belichick might be doing his best job ever, the way he’s guided this year’s team with a rookie quarterback. Against Buffalo, the Patriots rushed 46 times for 222 yards and a touchdown. Mac Jones was 2-for-3 passing for 19 yards, but will surely get more chances to throw on Saturday. Jones, a first-round pick (15th overall) in the 2021 draft, has completed 70.3 percent of his passes for 2,869 yards, 16 touchdowns and eight interceptions. The Patriots are 10th in the NFL with 26.9 points per game, with a rushing attack that ranks ninth with 123.5 rushing yards per contest. Their defense has been the biggest surprise. They rank tops in the NFL with only 15.4 points allowed per contest and third against the pass (195.5). Center David Andrews (shoulder) and running back Damien Harris (hamstring) were limited in practice.
The Colts didn’t have a bye last week, but it sure felt like it in the 31-0 win over Houston. This week’s competition will definitely be more of a test. Running Jonathan Taylor ran for 143 yards and two touchdowns on 32 carries. Taylor has 1,348 rushing yards and also leads the NFL with 16 rushing touchdowns. He has topped 100 yards in all seven of Indianapolis’ wins. His 18 total touchdowns are two shy of the franchise mark set by Baltimore Colts legend Lenny Moore in 1964. Taylor has made life easier for quarterback Carson Wentz, who has passed for 2,948 yards, 22 touchdowns and just five interceptions. The Colts defense is No. 1 in the NFL with 2.2 takeaways per game and fourth in defensive interception rate. The unit is led by one of the NFL’s top defensive players in linebacker Darius Leonard, who has 97 tackles, five forced fumbles and two interceptions.
When you have great coaching and a solid defense, you’ll win most games. That’s what New England has going on right now. They will try and slow Taylor down so that Wentz is forced to make mistakes. Wentz is having a solid season, but I don’t trust him in big games against well-coached teams. I’ll take the Pats.
Pick: Patriots +2
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