New England (6-2) at Denver (3-5)
When: Sunday, November 12th 2017
Where: Sports Authority Field, Denver, CO
Time: 8:30 ET | TV: NBC
Opening Odds: New England -7/46.5
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The New England Patriots will look to stay perfect on the road when they visit a place they haven’t had much success – Denver, Colorado. New England will be facing a Denver Broncos team that is in desperate need of a victory after getting blasted in Philadelphia last week 51-23. The Broncos have lost four in a row overall and will be playing at home for the first time since October 15th – they are 3-1 at Sports Authority Field this season. The Patriots are on an opposite streak with four consecutive victories to move into a tie with Pittsburgh for the AFC’s best record and are coming off a bye, but Tom Brady has won only three of 10 career matchups against Denver in the Mile High City. With a 3-0 record away from home this season, New England has now won 11 straight on the road. Patriots coach Bill Belichick needs one win to tie Tom Landry for No. 3 all-time with 270 victories, including playoffs.
New England has not set the world on fire during their winning streak, averaging just over 21 points a game, but still leads the league with 2,541 passing yards while throwing for 16 touchdowns and only two interceptions. Five different receivers caught at least five of his passes in a 21-13 victory over San Diego before the bye, but wide receiver Chris Hogan is expected to miss the game due to injury. Tight end Rob Gronkowski, who has five touchdown receptions and is second to running back James White with 34 catches, missed last season’s 16-3 victory in Denver. The Patriots owned the league’s worst defense through four games but they have turned that around, allowing just 12.8 points over the past four. Starting Sunday, New England will play five of their next six games on the road.
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Brock Osweiler will make his second straight start following the benching of Trevor Siemian and bested the Patriots while with Denver in 2015, passing for 270 yards and a score in a 30-24 overtime victory. He won’t have the same weapons at his disposal this time around as wide receivers Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Bennie Fowler are dealing with injuries as well as three of his starting offensive linemen. The ground game is still a mess after C.J. Anderson, Devontae Booker and Jamaal Charles managed 35 yards on 21 carries in Philadelphia. Denver’s defense is still strong, ranking second in the league with 280.8 yards allowed, but the sack totals have dropped way off since last season to 19 despite the presence of linebacker Von Miller.
This looks like a complete mismatch on paper, but we know that anything can happen in the NFL. The Broncos are finally playing in front of their home fans after three straight on the road and they’ll be up for this game. The defense will continue to frustrate Brady and Osweiler will do just enough to keep this one close. The public loves the Patriots in this game, but don’t bet on it.
Pick: Broncos +7.5
- Patriots are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Patriots are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
- Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Patriots are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.
- Patriots are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
- Patriots are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win.
- Patriots are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games overall.
- Patriots are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Patriots are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 vs. AFC.
- Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.
- Patriots are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Patriots are 78-38-2 ATS in their last 118 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Patriots are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Patriots are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
- Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 10.
- Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Broncos are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- Broncos are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
- Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
- Broncos are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
- Broncos are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC.
- Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
- Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
- Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Patriots last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 6-0 in Patriots last 6 games in Week 10.
- Under is 9-1 in Patriots last 10 games on grass.
- Over is 6-1 in Patriots last 7 games following a bye week.
- Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 21-5 in Patriots last 26 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 10-4 in Patriots last 14 road games.
- Over is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 vs. AFC.
- Over is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 7-1 in Broncos last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games in November.
- Over is 8-3 in Broncos last 11 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Under is 8-3 in Broncos last 11 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 8-3 in Broncos last 11 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 8-3 in Broncos last 11 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Home team is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
- Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Denver.
- Patriots are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Denver.
