Carolina (8-3) at New Orleans (8-3)
When: Sunday, December 3rd 2017
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Time: 4:25 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: New Orleans -3/48
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There are a few intriguing matchups in Week 13 of the NFL schedule this week, but the battle for the NFC South may be the most entertaining of the bunch. The New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers are tied atop the division with the Atlanta Falcons right behind them, and they will meet for the second time this season. Carolina pulled even in the South race with last week’s 35-27 road win over the New York Jets coupled with the Saints’ 26-20 road defeat against the Los Angeles Rams. The Saints routed the Panthers 34-13 in Charlotte in Week 3 to begin their impressive eight-game winning streak. New Orleans dominated for most of that stretch before having to roar back in the fourth quarter with a 34-31 overtime win over Washington and losing to the Rams the next week. Carolina was left for dead by some experts following a 17-3 loss at Chicago in Week 7 but has won four straight since. Saints quarterback Drew Brees has averaged 313 passing yards with 12 touchdowns and three interceptions in his last four meetings with the Panthers.
Carolina’s second-ranked defense has been a big part of their recent run, but the secondary is starting to fall apart of late, allowing 302 passing yards to Atlanta in Week 9 and 282 to the lowly Jets. Getting the ground game going again has been key as well, as Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart lead the league’s No. 5 rushing offense at 129.2 yards a game. Rookie Christian McCaffrey plays a key role in the offense with 59 receptions, the most among rookies and second-most among running backs. Devin Funchess has become Newton’s go-to receiver with Kelvin Benjamin traded to Buffalo and tight end Greg Olsen plagued by injuries. The Pro Bowl tight end caught one pass for 10 yards last week in his first action since Week 2. The Panthers will get their next three games at home before closing the season in Atlanta.
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New Orleans’ offense has always been great behind Brees, and this year is no different, ranking second overall at 409.4 yards a contest. Brees ranks third in the NFL with 3,029 passing yards, but he’s getting a lot of help offensively from running backs Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara, who leads the league in scrimmage yards (777) since Week 7, and his seven touchdowns are tied for the most in the NFL during that span. The defense was a force during the eight-game winning streak, holding five opponents under 300 total yards, but the team has surrendered 871 total yards over the last two weeks and 57 points. The Saints will play their third straight game against a winning team next week when they travel to Atlanta for a Thursday night battle.
The rest of the season, we are going to see a lot of New Orleans, Carolina, and Atlanta playing each other. This game should be exciting from start to finish, and I’m taking the points and Carolina in this one. The Saints defense is starting to worry me, and they’re not as dominant at home as they used to be. They’re just 3-2 ATS in the Superdome, while the Panthers are 5-1 ATS on the road this season.
Pick: Panthers +4
- Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
- Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Panthers are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 13.
- Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC South.
- Saints are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Saints are 22-5 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Saints are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
- Saints are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC.
- Saints are 40-18-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1 in Panthers last 7 games in Week 13.
- Over is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Panthers last 6 vs. NFC South.
- Over is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 21-6-1 in Panthers last 28 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 9-3-1 in Panthers last 13 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Panthers last 5 games in December.
- Over is 9-3 in Panthers last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 16-7-1 in Panthers last 24 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 17-8-1 in Panthers last 26 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 games following a straight up loss.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Saints last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 vs. NFC.
- Over is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 6-2 in Saints last 8 games on fieldturf.
- Over is 13-5-1 in Saints last 19 home games.
- Over is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Saints last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Underdog is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
- Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in New Orleans.
- Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
- Panthers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 meetings in New Orleans.
- Road team is 23-9 ATS in their last 32 meetings.
- Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
