Padres vs Dodgers Preview & Free Pick | Prediction [5/14/19]

San Diego (22-19) at LA Dodgers (27-16)
When: Tuesday, May 14th, 2019
Where: Dodger Stadium,
Los Angeles, CA
Time: 10:10 ET | TV: FS San Diego,
SportsNet LA
Opening Odds: Los Angeles -168/7.5


The Los Angeles Dodgers took two of three earlier this season from the San Diego Padres, but they didn’t have to face Chris Paddack. The rookie sensation will be on the Dodger Stadium mound Tuesday night for the opener of a brief two-game series between the clubs. He will be opposed by future Hall-of-Famer Clayton Kershaw in what should be a low-scoring affair. L.A. was one out away from sweeping that series in early May, but the Padres rallied at home in the bottom of the ninth and Hunter Renfroe capped it off with a walk-off grand slam in the 8-5 win. Renfroe has just 27 hits on the season (.241 AVG) and 19 of those have gone for extra bases. San Diego will start the week in second place in the NL West, four games behind the Dodgers, who are an NL-best 17-6 at home this season despite splitting a four-game series over the weekend with the Washington Nationals. Outfielder Cody Bellinger (.407) is the first Dodger to carry a .400 batting average through 173 plate appearances in a season since Jackie Robinson in 1951. San Diego began their five-game road trip by dropping two of three in Colorado and the pitching staff, which ranks 11th in MLB with a 4.01 ERA, surrendered 22 runs in the two setbacks.

Pitchers: Padres – Chris Paddack (3-1, 1.55 ERA) | Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw (2-0, 3.31)

Paddack has not disappointed from his first start in the majors, but the Padres are being cautious with him, as he’s gone over 90 pitches just once this season. That was a 91-pitch outing last Monday when he won his third straight start and posted his second scoreless outing over that time in the 4-0 victory over Jacob deGrom and the New York Mets. Paddack is holding opponents to just a .130 batting average and owns 46 strikeouts versus only 10 walks across 40.2 innings.


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Kershaw has lost some momentum over this last two starts and was hit for four runs and nine hits against Atlanta over 6.2 innings last Wednesday, but did pick up the win. Kershaw allowed three runs in six innings – including two homers – in his previous outing in San Diego but came away with a no-decision. He is 18-6 with a 1.97 ERA in 35 career starts versus San Diego.

The Dodgers have taken two of the first three meetings in 2019 with San Diego.

Remember this date and remember the line in this game. Paddack is the real deal and you will not find him at nearly +150 very often for the rest of this year at least. He’s already beaten deGrom and now sets his sights on Kershaw. San Diego got to the lefty a few weeks ago and should be able to score enough to pull out a victory.

Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Tuesday. He is 60-39 +1592 units on the season after a 10-1 run!

Pick: Padres +148


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BETTING TRENDS:

Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Padres are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a loss.
Padres are 12-3 in their last 15 games following an off day.
Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Padres are 17-35 in their last 52 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Padres are 15-37 in their last 52 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Padres are 2-6 in their last 8 Tuesday games.
Padres are 2-7 in their last 9 vs. National League West.
Padres are 4-0 in Paddack’s last 4 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Padres are 6-1 in Paddack’s last 7 starts.
Padres are 6-1 in Paddack’s last 7 starts on grass.

Dodgers are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Dodgers are 17-4 in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Dodgers are 16-5 in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Dodgers are 22-7 in their last 29 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Dodgers are 5-2 in their last 7 overall.
Dodgers are 5-2 in their last 7 games on grass.
Dodgers are 37-15 in their last 52 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Dodgers are 39-16 in their last 55 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Dodgers are 36-16 in their last 52 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Dodgers are 36-16 in their last 52 home games.
Dodgers are 44-20 in their last 64 vs. National League West.
Dodgers are 35-17 in their last 52 during game 1 of a series.
Dodgers are 39-19 in their last 58 games following an off day.
Dodgers are 2-5 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Dodgers are 54-12 in Kershaw’s last 66 starts vs. National League West.
Dodgers are 50-12 in Kershaw’s last 62 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Dodgers are 45-12 in Kershaw’s last 57 home starts.
Dodgers are 49-15 in Kershaw’s last 64 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Dodgers are 45-14 in Kershaw’s last 59 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Dodgers are 78-25 in Kershaw’s last 103 starts.
Dodgers are 77-25 in Kershaw’s last 102 starts on grass.
Dodgers are 48-16 in Kershaw’s last 64 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Dodgers are 44-15 in Kershaw’s last 59 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Dodgers are 45-16 in Kershaw’s last 61 starts with 5 days of rest.
Dodgers are 19-7 in Kershaw’s last 26 Tuesday starts.
Dodgers are 37-14 in Kershaw’s last 51 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Dodgers are 39-15 in Kershaw’s last 54 starts during game 1 of a series.

Over is 4-0 in Padres last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 7-1 in Padres last 8 Tuesday games.
Under is 6-1 in Padres last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Padres last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Padres last 5 vs. National League West.
Over is 3-1-1 in Padres last 5 games following an off day.
Under is 3-1-1 in Padres last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Under is 8-3 in Padres last 11 games following a loss.
Under is 8-3 in Padres last 11 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 8-3 in Padres last 11 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Over is 5-2 in Padres last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 5-0 in Paddack’s last 5 starts on grass.
Under is 5-0 in Paddack’s last 5 starts overall.

Under is 3-0-1 in Dodgers last 4 overall.
Under is 3-0-1 in Dodgers last 4 on grass.
Under is 3-0-1 in Dodgers last 4 home games.
Under is 3-0-1 in Dodgers last 4 during game 1 of a series.
Over is 3-0-1 in Dodgers last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-1 in Dodgers last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 19-4-3 in Dodgers last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 4-1-1 in Dodgers last 6 games following a win.
Under is 19-5-3 in Dodgers last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 3-1-1 in Dodgers last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 3-1-2 in Dodgers last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 12-4-2 in Dodgers last 18 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 8-3-2 in Dodgers last 13 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 13-5-1 in Dodgers last 19 vs. National League West.
Over is 5-2 in Dodgers last 7 games following an off day.
Over is 5-2 in Dodgers last 7 Tuesday games.
Under is 7-3 in Dodgers last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Under is 4-0-1 in Kershaw’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 6-1-1 in Kershaw’s last 8 home starts.
Under is 5-1 in Kershaw’s last 6 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Dodgers are 8-0 in Kershaw’s last 8 home starts vs. Padres.
Over is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings.
Over is 5-1 in Kershaw’s last 6 home starts vs. Padres.
Dodgers are 23-5 in Kershaw’s last 28 starts vs. Padres.
Over is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings in Los Angeles.
Over is 9-3 in Kershaw’s last 12 starts vs. Padres.
Padres are 20-46 in the last 66 meetings.
Padres are 13-38 in the last 51 meetings in Los Angeles.

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