Packers vs Steelers Preview, Trends, & Free Pick [Week 12]

Green Bay (5-5) at Pittsburgh (8-2)
When: Sunday, November 26th 2017
Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA
Time: 8:30 ET | TV: NBC
Opening Odds: Pittsburgh -14.5/42

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Just a month ago, this matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers looked as if it would be the best Sunday night game of the year, but everything had changed on the Green Bay side by losing just one player. The Packers were battling the Minnesota Vikings for supremacy in the NFC North before quarterback Aaron Rodgers went down with a broken collarbone, and now the Pack are likely to miss out on the playoffs altogether. Green Bay has dropped four of five since the injury and were shutout at home for the first time in 11 years last week against the Baltimore Ravens (23-0). The Steelers on the other hand, have been rolling with five straight victories after a home loss to Jacksonville back in Week 5 and QB Ben Roethlisberger has been getting stronger each week. Roethlisberger is coming off his best game of the season in a 40-17 rout of Tennessee last time out and Pittsburgh holds a three-game lead over the Ravens in the AFC North. Big Ben has won his last six prime-time games at home, throwing for 20 touchdowns against only two interceptions.

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Green Bay scored 93 points during a three-game winning streak prior to the injury to Rodgers, but it is averaging just 13.4 in the five games since Brett Hundley replaced the two-time MVP. Hundley was intercepted three times by the Ravens and has just two TDs against seven interceptions while averaging only 156.7 yards passing per game. Wide receiver Davante Adams has been Hundley’s favorite target with 20 receptions over the past three games, but the running game has been plagued by injuries to Ty Montgomery and Aaron Jones, who both did not practice Wednesday. Green Bay’s defense, which ranks 18th in the league at 340.1 yards allowed per game, limited Baltimore to 219 yards last time out. Green Bay will host Tampa Bay next Sunday afternoon.

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Since Roethlisberger was intercepted five times in the 30-9 loss to Jacksonville, he has thrown for 1,328 yards with 10 TDs and a 102.7 passer rating during the winning streak. Wideout Antonio Brown leads the league in catches (70) and receiving yards (1,026) after catching 10 balls thrown his way and three touchdowns in the win over Tennessee. Pittsburgh also features the NFL’s leading rusher in Le’Veon Bell, who has 886 yards despite being limited to 46 versus the Titans. Pittsburgh is second in the league at 16.5 points allowed and has not surrendered more than 17 points during the five-game run. This is the second of four-straight prime-time games for Pittsburgh, who will be in Cincinnati next Monday night.

WEEK 12 STAFF SELECTIONS

This went from one of the best Sunday night games to possibly the worst as the Steelers are two touchdown favorites in this one. Green Bay’s defense has been OK, but the offense won’t be able to generate much of anything and this game could get ugly. I’ll lay the points.

Pick: Steelers -14

• Packers are 36-15-2 ATS in their last 53 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Packers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Packers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home.
• Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
• Packers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.
• Packers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games in November.
• Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 12.
• Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
• Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Packers are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

• Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
• Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Steelers are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Steelers are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
• Steelers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games in November.
• Steelers are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 12.
• Steelers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.

• Over is 7-1 in Packers last 8 road games.
• Under is 7-1 in Packers last 8 games in Week 12.
• Over is 7-1 in Packers last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Over is 5-1 in Packers last 6 games following a ATS loss.
• Under is 4-1 in Packers last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
• Over is 13-4 in Packers last 17 games overall.
• Over is 9-3 in Packers last 12 games on grass.
• Over is 9-3 in Packers last 12 games following a straight up loss.
• Over is 6-2 in Packers last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Over is 8-3 in Packers last 11 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Over is 13-5 in Packers last 18 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
• Over is 5-2 in Packers last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Over is 5-2 in Packers last 7 games in November.

• Under is 5-0 in Steelers last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Under is 7-1 in Steelers last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Under is 13-3 in Steelers last 16 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
• Under is 4-1 in Steelers last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Under is 7-2 in Steelers last 9 games on grass.
• Under is 17-5 in Steelers last 22 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Under is 22-8-1 in Steelers last 31 games following a ATS win.
• Under is 5-2 in Steelers last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Under is 35-15-1 in Steelers last 51 games overall.
• Under is 9-4 in Steelers last 13 games in Week 12.
• Under is 37-17-1 in Steelers last 55 games following a straight up win.

• Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

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