Green Bay (1-0) at Atlanta (1-0)
When: Sunday, September 17th 2017
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Time: 8:30 ET | TV: NBC
Opening Odds: Atlanta -1/54
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In a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship Game, the Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons will do it again – this time for much lower stakes in a Week 2 matchup on Sunday Night Football. Green Bay entered last season’s conference title game on an eight-game winning streak but was never in it against Atlanta, falling behind by 24 points at halftime in a 44-21 blowout. The Falcons will hope for more offensive magic on Sunday when they open their brad new Mercedes-Benz Stadium in front of a national audience. It’s a terrific looking stadium with lots to offer including tours and restaurants. Check out the stadium guide now. The Falcons will be looking to beat Green Bay for the third time in 11 months as they also squeezed out a 33-32 victory at home last October on a last-minute touchdown pass by Matt Ryan. The league’s highest-scoring team in 2016 with an average of 33.8 points, Atlanta needed a late defensive stand to escape with a 23-17 victory at Chicago in Week 1. Including the playoff matchup, the teams have combined for at least 65 points in each of the past three meetings.
Aaron Rodgers, who threw for 311 yards with one touchdown and one interception in last week’s 17-9 victory over Seattle, has a passer rating of 117.0 in seven matchups against Atlanta while throwing for 29 TDs against only two interceptions. Running back Ty Montgomery had 93 total yards and a touchdown while wide receivers Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson combined for 16 receptions and a score last week. Rodgers could see his time in the pocket shrink this week as left tackle David Bakhtiari is battling a hamstring issue and right tackle Bryan Bulaga is dealing with illness and a sprained ankle. The Packers’ defense limited the Seahawks to 225 total yards and 12 first downs last week, although Seattle’s offensive line is a mess and the Falcons will give them a bigger test this week.
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Ryan connected on an 88-yard touchdown strike to tight end Austin Hooper in the fourth quarter and finished with 321 yards passing in the season opening win over Chicago last week. Ryan, the reigning NFL MVP, has put up huge numbers over the past three matchups against the Packers, passing for 1,055 yards with 11 touchdowns against one interception. Star wide receiver Julio Jones, who had four catches for 66 yards last week, torched Green Bay in the NFC title game with nine catches for 180 yards and two scores, and had an 11-catch, 259-yard performance against the Packers in 2014. The backfield tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman struggled a bit last week, combining for only 53 yards rushing on 20 carries.
These two teams seem to always light up the scoreboard when they play each other and I expect more of the same again. I don’t trust Green Bay’s defense against an offensive machine like Atlanta and I can see the Falcon’s scoring at will, while the defense will come up with some stops against Rodgers. I like Atlanta big in this game.
Pick: Falcons -3
- Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
- Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
- Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
- Packers are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.
- Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Packers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 2.
- Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Packers are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Packers are 40-19-1 ATS in their last 60 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 2.
- Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Falcons are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.
- Falcons are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
- Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
- Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Falcons are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Packers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 7-1 in Packers last 8 games overall.
- Over is 7-1 in Packers last 8 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 7-1 in Packers last 8 vs. NFC.
- Over is 6-1 in Packers last 7 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 5-1 in Packers last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 games on grass.
- Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 11-4 in Packers last 15 games in September.
- Over is 7-3 in Packers last 10 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Falcons last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 11-0 in Falcons last 11 home games.
- Over is 5-0 in Falcons last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0 in Falcons last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 7-1 in Falcons last 8 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 16-4-1 in Falcons last 21 games overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Falcons last 5 games in September.
- Over is 12-3-1 in Falcons last 16 vs. NFC.
- Over is 12-3-1 in Falcons last 16 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 7-2 in Falcons last 9 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 11-4-1 in Falcons last 16 games on grass.
- Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
- Underdog is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
