Indiana (27-15) at Denver (29-12)
When: Sunday, January 19th, 2020
Where: Pepsi Center,
Denver, CO
Time: 8:05 ET | TV: FS Indiana
Opening Odds: Denver -3.5/211.5
The Indiana Pacers are only about 10 days away from the return of their superstar Victor Oladipo, but the meantime, the team is doing better than expected without him. The Pacers begin a five-game West Coast trip on Sunday night when they visit the Denver Nuggets and there’s no telling who’s going to step up next for Indiana. Small forward T.J. Warren recorded 28 points on 11-of-18 shooting in a 116-114 victory over Minnesota on Friday, which improved the team to 17-5 at home. Indiana is just 10-10 on the road and 11-9 ATS, but have won and covered each of their last three away from Indianapolis. Denver owns a 17-5 record at home and comes in riding a three-game winning streak after beating the Golden State Warriors in a 134-131 overtime victory on Thursday. The Nuggets weren’t missing their superstar Nikola Jokic, but they were without three starters on Thursday – guard Jamal Murray (ankle), forward Paul Millsap (knee) and swingman Gary Harris (groin). Millsap and or Harris could be back Sunday, but Murray will be out for the “foreseeable future,” according to coach Michael Malone. The home team had won four in a row in the series until a 124-116 Denver victory at Indiana on Jan. 2.
Warren wasn’t the only one who stepped up last game. Reserve guard Aaron Holiday, who was held scoreless Wednesday at Minnesota, scored 13 points on 5-of-7 shooting on Friday. Point guard Malcolm Brogdon hit the tiebreaking shot down the stretch and finished with 12 points and 10 assists – his first double-double since Dec. 22 against his old team Milwaukee. The Pacers don’t score a ton of points, ranking 19th at 109.4 per game, but are extremely efficient – 47.2 percent from the field (third in league). Indiana moves on to Utah tomorrow night.
The Denver bench was outstanding on Thursday with three players scoring 15 points or more including Malik Beasley’s 27 points in 39 minutes. Mason Plumlee (15 points, 15 rebounds) and Michael Porter Jr (18 points, 10 rebounds) also came up big. Guard Will Barton led all scorers with a season-high 31 on 11-of-20 shooting, while Jokic fell just short of a triple-double (23 points, 12 rebounds, eight assists). After holding Charlotte to 86 points the night before, Denver’s defense allowed the Warriors to hit 20 three-pointers in scoring 134.
These are pretty evenly-matched teams and when that’s the case, I tend to lean towards the home team. Denver isn’t has dominate at Pepsi Center as they were last season, but usually play well versus teams with winning records.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free NBA Picks page for Sunday. He is 47-36-3 (57%) on the season!
Pick: Nuggets -1.5
Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Pacers are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog.
Pacers are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Nuggets are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Nuggets are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Nuggets are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Nuggets are 2-5-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite.
Nuggets are 2-5-2 ATS in their last 9 home games.
Nuggets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win.
Over is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 games as an underdog.
Over is 6-1 in Pacers last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 6-1 in Pacers last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.
Over is 5-1 in Pacers last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Pacers last 6 road games.
Over is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 8-2 in Pacers last 10 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 games as a road underdog.
Over is 8-2 in Pacers last 10 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Over is 9-3 in Pacers last 12 overall.
Over is 9-3 in Pacers last 12 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 29-10-1 in Pacers last 40 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 5-2 in Pacers last 7 Sunday games.
Under is 36-16-1 in Pacers last 53 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 26-12 in Pacers last 38 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 4-0 in Nuggets last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Nuggets last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 10-2 in Nuggets last 12 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Under is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 overall.
Over is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 10-3 in Nuggets last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 6-2 in Nuggets last 8 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
Under is 12-4 in Nuggets last 16 games playing on 2 days rest.
Over is 20-8-1 in Nuggets last 29 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Nuggets last 7 games as a home favorite.
Over is 5-2 in Nuggets last 7 Sunday games.
Under is 5-2 in Nuggets last 7 home games.
Over is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Denver.
Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.
Pacers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
