Baltimore (19-41) at Toronto (26-35)
When: Thursday, June 7th 2018
Where: Rogers Centre, Toronto
Time: 7:05 ET | TV: MASN, Sportsnet
Opening Odds: Toronto -139/9.5
The Chicago White Sox win on Wednesday left the Baltimore Orioles as the last team in the majors with less than 20 wins (19-41) and they would like to get over that plateau right away as they open a four-game weekend series in Toronto against the struggling Blue Jays on Thursday. Baltimore is coming in with some momentum, however, recording consecutive victories for just the fourth time this season after capping a two-game interleague sweep of the New York Mets in Flushing with Wednesday afternoon’s 1-0 squeaker. Manny Machado saw his eight-game hitting streak come to an end, but his sacrifice fly in the eighth inning proved to be the difference. The Blue Jays are 6.5 games ahead of the O’s at the bottom of the AL East and fell to 1-10 in their last 11 contests at the Rogers Centre on Wednesday. Sam Gaviglio scattered three hits over seven scoreless innings on for Toronto, but his offense failed to get it produce anything, striking out 15 times in a 3-0 setback in 13 innings against the New York Yankees. Kendrys Morales had two of his team’s four hits for the Blue Jays, who have lost seven of their last eight and 17 of 22 overall. Outfielder Curtis Granderson is partly to blame, going 0-for-17 with nine strikeouts in his last five games.
Pitchers: Orioles – David Hess (2-2, 3.47 ERA) | Blue Jays – Jaime Garcia (2-4, 6.08)
Rookie David Hess will be making his fifth start of the season and the last two outings were much better than the first two. He did take the loss last time out on May 30th after Bryce Harper’s solo homer in the third inning accounted for his lone damage among four hits in six innings of a 2-0 setback versus Washington. Hess, who took over for Chris Tillman in the rotation, has surprisingly gone deep into games in his first big league season by pitching six or more innings in three of his first four starts. He threw a first-pitch strike to 17 of the 23 batters he faced to get ahead in the count against the Nationals.
Jaime Garcia has been down-right awful this season and is coming off his worst outing of the season, giving up four runs on seven hits in a season-low 1.2 innings during Friday’s 5-2 loss to Detroit. Garcia, who has allowed the opposition to bat .291 against him this season, won his lone start against Baltimore despite being touched for five runs on 10 hits in 5.1 innings back in 2011.
To me, this pick is a no-brainer. Garcia is one of the worst starting pitchers in the league this season and he’s almost -150? Hess is young, but seems to be getting better quickly and should be able to hold down the Blue Jays lineup. I think Baltimore is a live-dog here.
Pick: Orioles +135
BETTING TRENDS:
- Orioles are 12-26 in their last 38 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Orioles are 9-20 in their last 29 during game 1 of a series.
- Orioles are 3-7 in their last 10 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Orioles are 23-60 in their last 83 overall.
- Orioles are 14-38 in their last 52 road games.
- Orioles are 6-17 in their last 23 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 1-5 in their last 6 games on astroturf.
- Orioles are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. American League East.
- Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
- Blue Jays are 2-5 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Blue Jays are 8-21 in their last 29 overall.
- Blue Jays are 5-17 in their last 22 games on astroturf.
- Blue Jays are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Blue Jays are 1-9 in their last 10 home games.
- Blue Jays are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. American League East.
- Blue Jays are 0-4 in their last 4 Thursday games.
- Blue Jays are 2-5 in Garcia’s last 7 starts.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 7-0 in Orioles last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 6-1 in Orioles last 7 overall.
- Over is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 Thursday games.
- Under is 4-1 in Orioles last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Under is 4-1 in Orioles last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-1 in Orioles last 5 road games.
- Under is 4-1 in Orioles last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 4-1 in Orioles last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 19-7 in Orioles last 26 on astroturf.
- Under is 4-0 in Hess’ last 4 starts overall.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Blue Jays last 4 on astroturf.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Blue Jays last 6 Thursday games.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Blue Jays last 4 home games.
- Over is 6-1-2 in Blue Jays last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Blue Jays last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 6-2 in Blue Jays last 8 overall.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Blue Jays last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
- Over is 17-6-3 in Blue Jays last 26 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 17-8-2 in Blue Jays last 27 vs. American League East.
- Under is 24-5-1 in the last 30 meetings.
- Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in Toronto.
