Oklahoma (17-10) at Iowa State (19-8)
When: Monday, February 25th, 2019
Where: Hilton Coliseum,
Ames, Iowa
Time: 8:00 ET | TV: ESPN2
Opening Odds: Iowa State -9.5/143
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The Oklahoma Sooners were squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble after their fifth straight loss on February 11th, but have rebounded by winning the last two over TCU and Texas to improve their overall record to 17-10. According to ESPN’s Bracketology, that’s good enough for a No. 10 seed right now, and the Sooners will get a chance to improve that when they visit No. 20 Iowa State on Monday night in Ames, Iowa. Oklahoma’s five-game skid included a loss to last-place West Virginia and also a one-point home setback to the Cyclones – their opponent tonight. The Sooners have four more games left and three of them come against ranked teams – and all teams they have already lost to once. Iowa State is already a lock to go dancing, but their chances of winning the Big 12 regular season title took a hit over the weekend with a 75-72 loss at TCU – their second straight loss – to drop three games behind first-place Kansas State. The Cyclones were in that game against TCU all the way to the final buzzer despite shooting 2-of-20 from 3-point territory. Iowa State hit 10-of-30 from long range and outrebounded the Sooners 37-27 in the win at Oklahoma on February 4th, their fourth win in the last five series meetings.
Oklahoma’s offensive woes continue to be a problem, as they rank 228th in the country in scoring (71.1) and have produced 54 points or less three times in the past seven games. Their highest output in that stretch came against the Cyclones (74), but they shot just 43.1 percent for the game. Christian James scored a team-high 19 points Saturday after averaging 9.8 points over his previous seven Big 12 games to help the Sooners knock off the Longhorns. Sophomore Brady Manek contributed 12 points and five rebounds, while freshman Jamal Bieniemy recorded a team-high eight assists Saturday, included a crucial block at the buzzer on a potential game-winning three-point attempt.
Iowa State was 16-0 this season when holding opponents to fewer than 70 points until Saturday’s loss to TCU, and the Cyclones have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games overall. Marial Shayok leads the team in scoring at 18.6, but got into foul trouble against TCU and was limited to a season-low four points in 16 minutes. Sophomore Cameron Lard is not a big scorer, but has hit 28 of his last 35 shots from the field covering the last eight games.
Iowa State is a dangerous team, but they’re not playing like it right now. The Sooners have looked pretty good the last two games and played the Cyclones tough earlier this month. I’m not willing to lay nine points on a team that has covered the spread just once this month.
Pick: Oklahoma +9
Sooners are 6-0-3 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Sooners are 8-1-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.
Sooners are 6-1-3 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Sooners are 17-7-3 ATS in their last 27 games overall.
Sooners are 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Sooners are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Cyclones are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.
Cyclones are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 Monday games.
Cyclones are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Cyclones are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Cyclones are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Cyclones are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big 12.
Under is 4-1 in Sooners last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 4-1 in Sooners last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 4-1 in Sooners last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 5-2 in Sooners last 7 road games.
Under is 12-5 in Sooners last 17 vs. Big 12.
Over is 4-1 in Cyclones last 5 overall.
Over is 4-1 in Cyclones last 5 vs. Big 12.
Under is 7-3 in Cyclones last 10 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 34-16-1 in Cyclones last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Iowa State.
Sooners are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
Sooners are 3-12-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Iowa State.
