Oklahoma (8-1) at Baylor (9-0)
When: Saturday, November 16th 2019
Where: McLane Stadium,
Waco, Texas
Time: 7:30 ET | TV: ABC
Opening Odds: Oklahoma -10/67
The Oklahoma Sooners and Baylor Bears have started to distance themselves from the rest of the Big 12 Conference and might play each other twice over the next month. First up, the regular season tilt from Waco, Texas this weekend, as the 13th-ranked Bears host the 10th-ranked Sooners in a game that could ultimately determine who wins the regular season conference crown. Much like Minnesota last week, Baylor is receiving no love in the College Football Playoff rankings despite an undefeated record. There are six one-loss teams and even two 2-loss schools ahead of them, providing plenty of motivation as 10-point underdogs at home at Bovada. Baylor finished 1-11 in its first season under head coach Matt Rhule in 2017, but the turnaround has been quick and the Bears are currently on an 11-game winning streak after a wild 29-23 win at TCU last Saturday. Oklahoma bounced back from their only loss (48-41 @Kansas State) and squeezed-out a 42-41 home win over Iowa State after holding the Cyclones out of the end zone on a two-point conversion attempt with 24 seconds remaining. The Sooners have taken each of the last four meetings with Baylor, scoring at least 44 points in each contest including a 66-33 triumph last season.
The Achillies heel for this Oklahoma team over the past few seasons has been their defense and that seemed to have improved this year. The Sooners allowed an average of 19.4 points through their first seven games, but the unit has holes in it now, surrendering 41 points in back-to-back contests. Oklahoma will be without defensive lineman Kenneth Mann (undisclosed) for the rest of the season and the unit ranks 42nd in FBS in yards allowed (355.1). Offensively, they’re just find with potential NFL first round draft pick and wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, who was named Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week for the second time this season after finishing with 167 yards receiving and two touchdowns against the Cyclones. Sophomore Kennedy Brooks ran for a season-high 132 yards and a touchdown for a Sooners offense that ranks No. 1 in yards (587.3) and No. 2 in points scored per game (48.4). The Sooners will host TCU next weekend.
Baylor is not real flashy nor do they rank extremely high in any popular statistical category on either side of the ball, but they just keep winning – and isn’t that what it’s all about? The Bears do lead the Big 12 with 29 sacks and rank 17th in the country in points allowed (19.0) and that was skewed a little last week. Sophomore linebacker Terrel Bernard earned Big 12 Player of the Week honors after a career-high 19 tackles and his first interception of the season. Baylor actually held TCU to just nine points in regulation but the three overtimes bumped up their average. All three of Baylor’s touchdowns came in the extra frames, including a pair of scoring catches from Denzel Mims, who accounted for three of his six catches and 36 of his 57 yards during the overtime periods. The Bears will finish out the season by hosting Texas and visiting Kansas.
There’s a lot to like in this spot here. It’s a very similar situation that Minnesota was in last week. Nobody is respecting this Baylor team, but they keep winning. Waco will be rocking Saturday night and the motivation is there for the Bears as 10-point underdogs. Oklahoma has struggled covering spreads this season, going 1-4 ATS in their last five overall and are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five November games. The Sooners defense is getting leaky and that will let Baylor hang around in this one.
Pick: Baylor +10 (More Week 12 Free Picks)
Betting Trends:
Sooners are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Sooners are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 road games.
Sooners are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Sooners are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Sooners are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
Bears are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
Bears are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win.
Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
Bears are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.
Bears are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win.
Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 6-0 in Sooners last 6 games in November.
Over is 5-1-1 in Sooners last 7 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Sooners last 5 road games.
Over is 4-1 in Sooners last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 12-4 in Sooners last 16 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 19-7-1 in Sooners last 27 games on grass.
Over is 19-7 in Sooners last 26 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Over is 8-3 in Sooners last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 21-8-1 in Sooners last 30 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 18-7-1 in Sooners last 26 games overall.
Over is 38-16 in Sooners last 54 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 14-6 in Sooners last 20 games following a straight up win.
Over is 38-17-1 in Sooners last 56 conference games.
Over is 11-5 in Sooners last 16 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Bears last 5 games in November.
Over is 4-1 in Bears last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 20-8 in Bears last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 5-2 in Bears last 7 games following a ATS win.
Under is 7-3 in Bears last 10 conference games.
Under is 9-4 in Bears last 13 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Baylor.
Road team is 16-7 ATS in their last 23 meetings.
