Oklahoma State (3-1, 0-1) at Texas Tech (3-0, 0-0)
When: Saturday, September 30th 2017
Where: Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, TX
Time: 8:00 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Oklahoma State -10.5/81
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A shootout on the football field is expected in Lubbock, Texas this Saturday night as the Texas Tech Red Raiders try and snap a nine-game losing streak to the Oklahoma State Cowboys and remain undefeated on the season. The Cowboys will look to rebound from their first loss of the season last week, when they fell to then No. 15 TCU at home 44-31 – a game I was way off on. Oklahoma State was impressive in their first three victories of the season, but came back down to earth against the Horned Frogs and have some work to do to meet their expectations of a national title run. Texas Tech forced five turnovers in its 27-24 upset win at Houston last week, and are second in FBS in turnover margin (plus 2.3 per game). In last year’s contest, Texas Tech rallied from a second half, double-digit deficit only to lose 45-44 on a missed extra point with 1:44 left in the game. The last time these two met in Lubbock was in 2015 and Oklahoma State’s James Washington scored on 75 and 73-yard pass receptions in the fourth quarter as the Cowboys rebounded from an early 17-point deficit for a 70-53 win.
Mason Rudolph threw for 398 yards against the Horned Frogs but tossed two interceptions and lost a fumble, hurting his early-season push for the Heisman Trophy. The senior is completing 66.7% of his passes for 1,533 yards with 13 touchdowns and three interceptions. Washington has 19 receptions for 520 yards and four TDs, averaging 27.4 yards per catch, while running backs Justice Hill (352 yards) and J.D. King (201 yards) combine to average nearly six yards per carry. In last season’s game, Rudolph passed for 395 yards and two TDs while Hill gained 126 yards on the ground. Rudolph became the school’s all-time leader in total offense (10,250 yards), moving ahead of Zac Robinson, and also set a school record with his fifth consecutive 300-yard passing performance last week. Oklahoma State will get a week off before a home date with the Baylor Bears.
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The Red Raiders are ninth in scoring in FBS (45 points per game) and third in total offense (587.3), while the defense is allowing only 26.3 points – 17.2 fewer per game than last season’s FBS-worst scoring defense. Quarterback Nic Shimonek has completed 92-of-125 passes (73.6%) for 1,248 yards with 11 touchdowns and one interception. His 85.9 QBR rank via ESPN is third-best in FBS, behind Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield and Rudolph. Shimonek threw for 321 yards and two scores against Houston, hitting Keke Coutee 11 times for 161 yards. Coutee has 28 catches for 446 yards and four scores on the season, while fellow wideouts Dylan Cantrell and Derrick Willies have each topped 200 yards receiving with two scores apiece for the Red Raiders.
These teams scored 89 last year and 123 the last time they were in Lubbock. This year’s total is set at 84.5 and I’m thinking they will go over that again. My official prediction, however, will be to take the Red Raiders and the points. Their defense is much improved and they turnover margin is very important. This Cowboys team is not invincible as it appeared, and I think they could actually lose this game, so why not take the points?
Pick: Texas Tech +10.5
TRENDS:
- Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
- Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
- Cowboys are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a double-digit loss at home.
- Cowboys are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
- Red Raiders are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Red Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Red Raiders are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Red Raiders are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games on fieldturf.
- Red Raiders are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games in September.
- Red Raiders are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 conference games.
- Red Raiders are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Red Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 road games.
- Over is 8-2 in Cowboys last 10 games on fieldturf.
- Over is 7-2 in Cowboys last 9 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 6-2 in Cowboys last 8 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 12-4 in Cowboys last 16 conference games.
- Over is 5-2 in Cowboys last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.
- Over is 10-4 in Cowboys last 14 games following a straight up loss.
- Over is 20-8-1 in Cowboys last 29 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1 in Red Raiders last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 12-3 in Red Raiders last 15 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 14-5 in Red Raiders last 19 home games.
- Over is 20-8 in Red Raiders last 28 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 5-2 in Red Raiders last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 12-5 in Red Raiders last 17 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 13-6 in Red Raiders last 19 conference games.
- Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
- Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Texas Tech.
- Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
- Cowboys are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
