Ohio State (10-2) vs Wisconsin (12-0)
When: Saturday, December 2nd 2017
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Time: 8:00 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Ohio State -6.5/53.5
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For the first time since 1912, the Wisconsin Badgers finished the regular season undefeated, but that won’t mean anything if they don’t win one more. They will represent the West division of the Big Ten on Saturday night when they take on the Ohio State Buckeyes for the conference title and possible College Football Playoff berth. The Badgers have been looking for respect all season, but none of Wisconsin’s first 12 wins this season have come against opponents who finished the regular season ranked in the coaches’ poll. That respect came on Tuesday when the CFB rankings were released and had Wisconsin at No. 4. While losses from the top two teams in the last CFP poll – Alabama and Miami (Fla.) – over Thanksgiving weekend certainly helped their cause in that regard, the Badgers took care of business on their end by blowing out Minnesota 31-0 last Saturday. The Buckeyes, who are seventh in the CFP, are headed to the Big Ten Championship for the first time since crushing Wisconsin 59-0 in 2014 en route to winning the inaugural CFP national championship. Ohio State has won three straight since losing 55-24 at Iowa on November 4th to keep its slim playoff hopes alive and defeated arch-rival Michigan 31-20 last weekend.
Quarterback J.T. Barrett is a question mark heading into Saturday’s championship game after he aggravated a cartilage injury in his right knee before and during last Saturday’s victory over the Wolverines. Barrett has had a monster season with 2,728 yards passing, 672 yards rushing and 42 total touchdowns. Before leaving the game for good in the third quarter, Barrett joined Dan LeFevour of Central Michigan (2006-09) as the only players in FBS history to throw for 100 TDs and run for 40 more. Freshman J.K. Dobbins (1,190 yards rushing) leads a rushing attack that ranks first in the Big Ten, while sophomore Mike Weber (602) has run for 109 yards per game over his last three and leads the Buckeyes with 10 rushing TDs, half of which have come during the three-game winning streak. Dobbins is 48 yards shy of breaking Maurice Clarett’s school rushing record by a freshman of 1,237 yards (2002). The Buckeyes would need a convincing win in this game and get some help with the other outcomes on Saturday if they want a CFP berth.
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The Badgers have a pretty good rushing attack themselves with Doak Walker Award finalist Jonathan Taylor ranking third in FBS with a Big Ten-best 1,805 rushing yards and needs only 120 over the remainder of the season to break the FBS freshman record held by Oklahoma’s Adrian Peterson set in 2004. Butkus Award finalist T.J. Edwards (67 tackles – 45 solo and 11 for loss – and four interceptions) and cornerback Nick Nelson (school-record 20 pass breakups) were honored as consensus all-conference selections Tuesday. The Badgers are No. 1 in the country in total defense at 236.9 yards a game, but like we mentioned before, the schedule has been weak. Sophomore quarterback Alex Hornibrook is 19-2 as a starter and ended an eight-game streak of throwing an interception against Minnesota, finishing 15-of-19 for 151 yards and three touchdowns. Wisconsin is only the seventh team in the Big Ten since 1946 to begin a season 12-0, although all seven instances have occurred over the last 23 years.
Of all the teams ranked in this week’s polls, the Badgers are the only team I can’t really gauge because of their schedule. Yes, they’ve taken care of business all year and have pretty impressive stats, but this Ohio State team will be ready for them. I think they Buckeyes get the win in this one, but I’m going to take the Badgers and the points and hope this doesn’t turn into the 2014 game.
Pick: Wisconsin +6
TRENDS:
- Buckeyes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
- Buckeyes are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss.
- Buckeyes are 2-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
- Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
- Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
- Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
- Badgers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
- Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Badgers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Badgers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Badgers are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Badgers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Badgers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.
- Over is 8-0 in Buckeyes last 8 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 9-1 in Buckeyes last 10 conference games.
- Over is 8-1 in Buckeyes last 9 games overall.
- Over is 8-1 in Buckeyes last 9 games on fieldturf.
- Over is 4-1 in Buckeyes last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 4-1 in Buckeyes last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 6-2 in Buckeyes last 8 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 35-17 in Buckeyes last 52 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Badgers last 5 games in December.
- Under is 4-1 in Badgers last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 7-2 in Badgers last 9 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 12-5-1 in Badgers last 18 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Over is 9-4 in Badgers last 13 conference games.
- Under is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings in Wisconsin.
- Home team is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
- Underdog is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
- Buckeyes are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
