Ohio State (6-0) at Northwestern (1-4)
When: Friday, October 18th 2019
Where: Ryan Field,
Evanston, Illinois
Time: 8:30 ET | TV: FS1
Opening Odds: Ohio State -26.5/49.5
The Ohio State Buckeyes should be well-rested for their Friday night clash with the Northwestern Wildcats on the road in which they are four touchdown favorites. You can say that Ohio State has looked like the best team in the country through the first half of the season, but they can’t be looking ahead to next week’s matchup with No. 6 Wisconsin. The Buckeyes, who are tied with Penn State atop the Big Ten East standings, have averaged 49.3 points a game while giving up just 8.8 in their 6-0 start. After allowing 21 to Florida Atlantic in the season opener, the Ohio State defense has surrendered 10 points or less in their last five games including a 34-10 win over Michigan State two weeks ago. Northwestern, meanwhile, is sitting at the bottom of the Big Ten West and have scored just 72 points in their 1-4 start and are in danger of missing out on a Bowl game for the first time since 2014. The Wildcats are also coming off a bye after coming up short in a 13-10 loss at Nebraska. Pat Fitzgerald’s teams have been known for big upsets, but have lost seven straight to Ohio State with the last win coming in Evanston back in 2004.
Ohio State ranks in the top ten in about every offensive and defensive category including turnover margin and total yards allowed (234.7). The defense is led by Chase Young, who is tied for second in the country at 1.42 sacks per game and there might be no way for this Northwestern offensive line to stop him or the rest of the Buckeyes pass rushers. Quarterback Justin Fields is third in the country in points responsible with 26.0 per game and sixth in pass efficiency, while running back J.K. Dobbins averages 137.7 yards per game on the ground. Dobbins has rushed for one more yard than Heisman Trophy contender Jonathan Taylor of Wisconsin through six games (826-825) on 13 fewer carries.
Northwestern has been in a few games including last time out against Nebraska and nearly pulled off a shocker at Wisconsin, but the offense kept stalling out and now the team is in danger of falling to 0-4 in conference play after winning the division last season. The defense isn’t bad, ranking 27th overall in yards allowed (320) and 14th against the pass (176.0). The offense ranks dead last in the Big Ten in passing (140.4) and their 14.4 points a game is 128th in the country. Backup quarterback Aidan Smith started last week against Nebraska instead of transfer Hunter Johnson, but both could play against Ohio State. Running back Drake Anderson has 366 yards rushing to lead the offense.
The Northwestern defense could slow down Ohio State a bit, but the offense is so bad that I don’t know if they can score 10 points here. Laying 28 on the road is dangerous, but I’m pretty confident in doing so this week.
Pick: Ohio State -28 (More Week 8 Free Picks)
Betting Trends:
Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Buckeyes are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
Buckeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Buckeyes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.
Buckeyes are 39-18 ATS in their last 57 games on grass.
Buckeyes are 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
Wildcats are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in October.
Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.
Wildcats are 7-2-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Wildcats are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Wildcats are 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 conference games.
Wildcats are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win.
Wildcats are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Wildcats are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Wildcats are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Wildcats are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.
Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Over is 3-0-1 in Buckeyes last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 6-1 in Buckeyes last 7 games on grass.
Over is 16-5 in Buckeyes last 21 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Buckeyes last 7 games in October.
Over is 9-4 in Buckeyes last 13 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 9-4 in Buckeyes last 13 road games.
Under is 5-0 in Wildcats last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 7-2 in Wildcats last 9 conference games.
Under is 42-14-1 in Wildcats last 57 home games.
Over is 10-4 in Wildcats last 14 games following a bye week.
Under is 5-2 in Wildcats last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 14-6-1 in Wildcats last 21 games following a ATS win.
Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Northwestern.
Buckeyes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
