Notre Dame (2-0) at Georgia (3-0)
When: Saturday, September 21, 2019
Where: Sanford Stadium,
Athens, Georgia
Time: 8:00 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: Georgia -13/58
There are two marquee matchups this weekend in College Football and the prime time game features two top 10 teams in the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Georgia Bulldogs from Sanford Stadium in Athens, Ga. The other big game takes place earlier on Saturday featuring Michigan vs. Wisconsin and you can find our free pick for that contest on our Week 4 predictions page, but for now, back to this huge non-conference tilt. Georgia has been about as close as you can get to winning a national championship in the last few seasons and are stacked with a ton of talent for another run at a title. The Bulldogs come into this matchup with three easy wins over Vanderbilt, Murray State, and Arkansas State, averaging 49.3 points per contest, while holding their opponents to just 23 total points. The schedule now gets daunting with Notre Dame first up before settling into the SEC portion of their season. The Irish have also cruised past their first two opponents and tuned up for this matchup with a 66-14 romp over New Mexico last Saturday. Notre Dame ranks 12th in the country against the pass (142.5), but will get a big test Saturday against Georgia’s Jake Fromm, who made his first college start two years ago at Notre Dame – a 20-19 Bulldogs victory. The only other meeting between these schools came in the 1981 Sugar Bowl in which Georgia beat the Irish for the national championship. Most online establishments set this line at Georgia -14, but the public has bet it up to 14.5 as of Thursday afternoon.
Notre Dame’s offense features a pretty good quarterback in senior Ian Book, who leads all Power 5 QB’s in yards per completion (19.07 yards) and passed for five touchdowns against New Mexico last week. Book had just 193 yards and a touchdown at Louisville before recording 406 yards of total offense (360 passing, 46 rushing) against New Mexico, as the Irish rank seventh in the nation in scoring offense (50.5). Senior running back Tony Jones Jr. rushed for 110 yards and a touchdown against Louisville, and Notre Dame running backs have 1,041 consecutive carries without losing a fumble. The Irish defense ranks ninth nationally in tackles for loss per game (nine), but have allowed an average of 235 rushing yards per contest so far.
The Bulldogs’ defense will finally get challenged on Saturday and come in ranked third in the nation at 7.7 points allowed and second in the SEC with 12 sacks. Georgia might have success running against an Irish team that has given up a lot on the ground so far and the Bulldogs have plenty of legs in which to work with. Five running backs have rushed for 100 yards and at least one touchdown through three games, led by junior D’Andre Swift’s 290 yards (9.4 per carry) and two scores. Fromm completed 16-of-29 passes for a touchdown in the 2017 victory over Notre Dame and has passed for 601 yards with five touchdowns and a 200.3 passer rating while sitting in the second half of the blowout wins this season.
It’s very tempting to take all these points with the seventh-ranked Fighting Irish, but this team hardly ever shows up in big games against powerful opponents. Clemson and Alabama are the best teams in the country, but the Bulldogs are very close behind and will want to make a statement here. I’ll lay the points.
Pick: Georgia -14.5 (More Week 4 Free Picks)
Betting Trends:
Fighting Irish are 5-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Fighting Irish are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Fighting Irish are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Fighting Irish are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Fighting Irish are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Fighting Irish are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win.
Fighting Irish are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in September.
Fighting Irish are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Fighting Irish are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Fighting Irish are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Fighting Irish are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Bulldogs are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 11-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Bulldogs are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Fighting Irish last 6 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Fighting Irish last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 non-conference games.
Over is 15-5 in Fighting Irish last 20 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 8-3 in Fighting Irish last 11 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 18-7 in Fighting Irish last 25 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Fighting Irish last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 16-7 in Fighting Irish last 23 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Bulldogs last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1-2 in Bulldogs last 8 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 4-1-1 in Bulldogs last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 10-3 in Bulldogs last 13 games in September.
Under is 3-1-1 in Bulldogs last 5 games overall.
Over is 3-1-1 in Bulldogs last 5 games following a straight up win.
Over is 3-1-1 in Bulldogs last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Over is 3-1-1 in Bulldogs last 5 games on grass.
Under is 6-2 in Bulldogs last 8 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 3-1-1 in Bulldogs last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 8-3-2 in Bulldogs last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-2-1 in Bulldogs last 8 games following a ATS win.
Under is 22-9-2 in Bulldogs last 33 home games.
