North Texas (9-4) vs Troy (10-2)
When: Saturday, December 16th 2017
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Time: 1:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Troy -5.5/61.5
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The North Texas Mean Green competed in the first four New Orleans Bowls when they were a member of the Sun Belt Conference, losing three of them, and now will battle former conference-foe, the Troy Trojans in the 2017 edition. Troy leads the series 8-2, including a 2005 win that snapped the Mean Green’s 26-game conference win streak. Troy won a share of its sixth Sun Belt title this season while the Mean Green won four Sun Belt titles between 2001-2004. The Mean Green won the C-USA West Division title in a tie-breaker with UAB and Southern Mississippi, but lost at Florida Atlantic in the championship game 41-17. That broke a five-game winning streak for North Texas and it also just the second time all season they scored under 20 points. Troy won their last six contests including a 32-25 win at Arkansas State to close the season.
The Mean Green, who are playing in the New Orleans Bowl for the first time since 2004, are aiming for their first 10-win season since 1977. North Texas sophomore quarterback Mason Fine broke single-season school records with 3,749 yards and 28 touchdowns on the way to first-team All-Conference USA honors. The Mean Green are on track to break single-season records in scoring (467 points) and total offense (467.0). Running back Jeffery Wilson rumbled for 1,215 yards and 16 touchdowns – and sits third in school history with 32 career rushing scores – but missed the last two games with a broken foot and is doubtful for the Bowl game. Sophomores Michael Lawrence (56 catches, 749 yards, three TDs), Jalen Guyton (48 catches, 764 yards, nine TDs) and Rico Bussey (43 catches, 613 yards, six TDs) account for 18 of Fine’s 28 scoring strikes.
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Troy senior quarterback Brandon Silvers (2,985 passing yards, 13 touchdowns) and the Trojans have scored and average of 38.7 points during the current winning streak, which is 17.4 more than their first six games. Silvers, who has 82 total career touchdowns, needs two more to tie Corey Robinson’s school record. The Trojans finished the regular season leading the nation in red-zone defense, holding opponents to 23 scores (six rushing TDs, 10 passing TD and seven field goals) in 39 attempts. The Troy defense is ranked 11th in the country in scoring (17.5 points) and has 101 tackles for loss – five away from setting a single-season school record. Freshman cornerback Marcus Jones (44 tackles) returned an interception 100 yards in the season finale against Arkansas State and returned three kickoffs for touchdowns on the way to a conference-record 32.9-yard kickoff return average. Troy, which is 2-1 at the New Orleans Bowl, has won 21 of its past 26 games under coach Neal Brown after he started 3-8 in 2015.
The Mean Green dearly miss Wilson at running back and it showed against Florida Atlantic. They do have the passing game to keep up, but the Troy defense is pretty good and I believe they will give North Texas trouble. I like Troy to win by double-digits.
Pick: Troy -6.5
TRENDS:
- Mean Green are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
- Mean Green are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
- Mean Green are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
- Mean Green are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Mean Green are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Mean Green are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Mean Green are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Mean Green are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Mean Green are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Trojans are 9-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Trojans are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Trojans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
- Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
- Over is 5-1 in Mean Green last 6 non-conference games.
- Under is 6-2 in Mean Green last 8 vs. S-Belt.
- Over is 8-3 in Mean Green last 11 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Mean Green last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 7-3 in Mean Green last 10 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Under is 7-3 in Mean Green last 10 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0 in Trojans last 6 Bowl games.
- Over is 6-0 in Trojans last 6 neutral site games.
- Over is 6-0 in Trojans last 6 bowl games.
- Under is 10-1 in Trojans last 11 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Trojans last 7 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 4-1 in Trojans last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-2 in Trojans last 9 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 12-4 in Trojans last 16 games overall.
- Under is 12-4 in Trojans last 16 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 8-3 in Trojans last 11 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 14-6-1 in Trojans last 21 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 37-16 in Trojans last 53 non-conference games.
