North Carolina (22-13) vs San Diego State (21-9)
When: Tuesday, March 18th 2025
Where: UD Arena,
Dayton, OH
Time: 9:10 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: North Carolina -4.5/143
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North Carolina Tar Heels L10 Games
| Date | vs | Score | Line | ATS | UNC FG | Opp FG | Reb |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/14/25 | @DUKE (N) | 71-74 (L) | 7/154.5 | WU | 26/55 | 27/55 | 30-30 |
| 3/13/25 | @WAKE (N) | 68-59 (W) | -6/147.5 | WU | 19/56 | 21/62 | 40-35 |
| 3/12/25 | ND (N) | 76-56 (W) | -10.5/145 | WU | 28/58 | 20/62 | 38-31 |
| 3/8/25 | DUKE | 69-82 (L) | 10/161 | LU | 25/64 | 31/55 | 22-36 |
| 3/4/25 | @VT | 91-59 (W) | -8/149.5 | WO | 33/56 | 22/58 | 36-24 |
| 3/1/25 | MIA | 92-73 (W) | -17.5/159 | WO | 33/56 | 29/68 | 35-24 |
| 2/24/25 | @FSU | 96-85 (W) | -3/156 | WO | 32/58 | 27/50 | 28-19 |
| 2/22/25 | UVA | 81-66 (W) | -9.5/139.5 | WO | 27/56 | 24/53 | 31-21 |
| 2/19/25 | NCST | 97-73 (W) | -10.5/146 | WO | 35/61 | 27/59 | 33-19 |
| 2/15/25 | @SYR | 88-82 (W) | -8.5/153 | LO | 30/61 | 29/66 | 35-35 |
San Diego State Aztecs L10 Games
| Date | vs | Score | Line | ATS | SDSU FG | Opp FG | Reb |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/13/25 | BSU (N) | 52-62 (L) | 1.5/133.5 | LU | 18/47 | 19/56 | 24-38 |
| 3/8/25 | NEV | 80-61 (W) | -6.5/132 | WO | 30/55 | 19/47 | 28-31 |
| 3/4/25 | @UNLV | 67-74 (L) | -3.5/131.5 | LO | 24/60 | 25/49 | 29-29 |
| 3/1/25 | @WYO | 72-69 (W) | -7.5/132.5 | LO | 24/48 | 25/56 | 18-37 |
| 2/25/25 | UNM | 73-65 (W) | -2.5/144.5 | WU | 25/52 | 22/64 | 32-36 |
| 2/22/25 | @USU | 71-79 (L) | 6/142 | LO | 23/52 | 21/51 | 28-32 |
| 2/18/25 | FRES | 83-60 (W) | -18.5/142.5 | WO | 34/63 | 24/55 | 29-17 |
| 2/15/25 | BSU | 64-47 (W) | -2/135.5 | WU | 26/48 | 18/54 | 29-28 |
| 2/11/25 | @SJSU | 69-66 (W) | -9.5/132 | LO | 24/59 | 26/64 | 38-32 |
| 2/8/25 | @CSU | 63-68 (L) | 2.5/134.5 | LU | 22/58 | 22/53 | 31-40 |
Prediction
North Carolina should have some motivation after being ridiculed for making the tournament in the first place. That won’t be enough here. San Diego State isn’t a powerhouse, but they have the defense to disrupt the Tar Heels and keep this one close. The Aztecs rank No. 1 in the nation in defensive field goal percentage, 14th in points allowed and 19th versus the three-pointer. I say San Diego State gets just enough offense to keep this close in what could be an ugly game.
Pick: San Diego State +4.5
