The NFL is one of the most exciting and unpredictable sports leagues in the world. In 2023, 93 of the most-watched programs on television belonged to the NFL.
Every week, fans and bettors alike pour over statistics, injury reports, and betting lines to determine who will come out on top.
One of the most popular ways to bet on NFL games is “against the spread” (ATS).
NFL against the spread betting involves picking whether a team will win by a certain number of points or lose by less than the spread set by sportsbooks. This type of wager is more strategic than simply betting on the outright winner because it accounts for the point differential, making every game more interesting to analyze and predict.
In this article, we’ll provide expert against-the-spread tips, so you can make the best picks when spread betting NFL.
Expert Tips for Betting NFL Against the Spread
Betting against the spread requires more than just knowing which team is better. Expert bettors take a more analytical approach, looking at a variety of factors that can influence the outcome of the game and, ultimately, whether a team will cover the spread.
1. Home-Field Advantage Matters-But It’s Not Everything
Historically, teams playing at home have a slight edge due to crowd support, familiarity with the field, and reduced travel fatigue. Home-field advantage is usually worth about 2.5 to 3 points on the spread. However, home-field advantage can be overvalued in some cases.
For example, a strong road team like the New England Patriots or Kansas City Chiefs may perform well even in tough environments, so betting on them as road favorites could provide value. Conversely, some teams struggle on the road, and betting against them when they’re away from home can be profitable.
2. Injuries and Absences Are Key
Injuries are one of the most critical factors in NFL betting. An injury to a star quarterback or key defensive player can dramatically shift the point spread. When making picks, always check the injury report to see if there are any significant absences that could affect the game’s outcome.
However, it’s important to avoid overreacting to injuries. Sometimes, when a team loses a star player, the betting public will move the line too far in favor of the other team. In these cases, the underdog can present good value.
For example, when backup quarterbacks fill in for injured starters, the spread might move several points, but if the backup is competent, the team may still perform well enough to cover.
3. Look for Line Movement
Tracking line movement is another key strategy for NFL bettors. Early in the week, sportsbooks release their initial spreads, and as money comes in, these lines may move. Sharp bettors often jump on early lines before the public moves them, so watching for sudden shifts can provide insights.
For example, if a line moves significantly in one direction (e.g., from -3 to -5.5), it could indicate heavy action from professional bettors or news affecting the game, such as an injury or weather conditions. Betting the line early or fading (going against) the public if the line moves too far can help you find value.
4. Consider Recent Performance and Matchups
Recent performance is crucial in predicting how a team will fare against the spread. Teams that are on a hot streak may cover the spread more consistently, while teams struggling with injuries or poor form may struggle to cover.
In addition, pay attention to matchups. Some teams match up better against certain opponents based on playing style. For example, a team with a strong pass defense may fare well against a high-flying passing offense, while a run-heavy team could dominate a defense that struggles to stop the run.
5. Weather Conditions Can Impact the Spread
Weather conditions can have a significant impact on NFL games, especially later in the season. Wind, rain, and snow can affect passing games and make it harder for teams to score points. In low-scoring games, underdogs tend to perform better against the spread because there’s less margin for error.
If the forecast calls for inclement weather, consider betting on the underdog or the under (total points scored). For example, strong winds can limit a team’s ability to throw deep passes, slowing down high-powered offenses and increasing the likelihood of closer games.
6. Betting Trends and Public Perception
Betting trends emerge over time based on how teams perform against the spread. For example, some teams consistently overperform when they’re underdogs, while others may struggle to cover the spread as favorites. Tracking these trends can give you an edge when making your picks.
Public perception also plays a role in how spreads are set. Popular teams like the Dallas Cowboys or Pittsburgh Steelers often have inflated spreads due to their large fan bases. As a result, betting against these teams when they’re overhyped can be a smart move.
Payouts and Odds
The standard odds for ATS bets are usually -110, meaning you need to bet $110 to win $100. If you’re correct in your prediction, the payout will include your original stake plus the winnings. If you’re wrong, you lose your wager.
Example of an ATS Bet
Let’s say the Green Bay Packers are playing the Chicago Bears, and the spread is Green Bay -4. If you bet on the Packers, they must win by more than four points for your bet to pay off.
If they win by exactly four points, the bet results in a “push,” and your original wager is returned. If the Bears lose by less than four points or win the game outright, those who bet on Chicago would win.
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