NC State (6-1) at Notre Dame (6-1)
When: Saturday, October 28th 2017
Where: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN
Time: 3:30 ET | TV: NBC
Opening Odds: Notre Dame -8/61.5
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In what could be considered a playoff game of sorts, the North Carolina State Wolfpack visit the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in a matchup of one-loss teams Saturday afternoon in South Bend. The Irish finished a disappointing 4-8 last season and put head coach Brian Kelly squarely on the hot-seat, but a five-game winning streak has Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff discussion. Those five wins have all come by 20 or more points and the Irish’s brutal schedule makes their power index that much more impressive if they can win out. North Carolina State is rolling as well with six consecutive victories and it features one of the nation’s top defensive players in senior end Bradley Chubb, who ranks second nationally with 14 tackles for loss. The Wolfpack sit a half-game ahead of Clemson in the ACC Atlantic Division with a home date against the reigning National Champs next week. North Carolina State is 2-0 all-time against Notre Dame, posting a 10-3 victory last season in a rain-soaked home game and also prevailing in the Gator Bowl following the 2002 season behind QB Philip Rivers.
Senior Ryan Finley is having a tremendous season, completing 69.4% of his passes with 11 touchdown passes and zero interceptions in 248 attempts. Junior running back Nyheim Hines (648 yards) boasts three straight 100-yard outings, while sophomore receiver Kelvin Harmon (547 yards on 36 receptions) is the first Wolf Pack player with four 100-yard receiving efforts in a season since Jerricho Cotchery (seven in 2003). Fellow wideout Jaylen Samuels ranks third in school history with 180 receptions, trailing only Torry Holt (191 from 1995-98) and Cotchery (200 from 2000-03). Chubb not only leads the nation in tackles for loss, but has a team-best 6.5 sacks and ranks fourth in school history with 22.5. He is the unquestioned leader of a defense that ranks sixth in rushing defense (91.3 yards per game) in the country.
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NC State will test the Irish’s sixth-ranked rushing offense (317.9) with run-based junior quarterback Brandon Wimbush (508 yards, 10 touchdowns) and junior running back Josh Adams (967 yards, eight scores, 9.2 average). Adams compiled 191 yards in last Saturday’s 49-14 thrashing of USC to get his name into the Heisman Trophy discussion. Notre Dame ranks 12th in scoring defense (16.4) and has forced 17 turnovers with junior linebacker Te’von Coney leading the team with 53 tackles after getting 11 along with a sack and forced fumble against USC. Notre Dame will get help on defense with the return of linebacker Greer Martini (knee).
Notre Dame is rolling right now, but shouldn’t take this solid NC State team lightly. The Wolfpack have enough defensive studs to keep this one close and Finley should have some success against the 85th-ranked Irish pass defense. I’ll take the points. It’s too bad this and the Penn State/Ohio State game are on at the same time.
Pick: NC State +7
TRENDS:
- Wolfpack are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Wolfpack are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
- Wolfpack are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on fieldturf.
- Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Wolfpack are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
- Wolfpack are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.
- Wolfpack are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games.
- Wolfpack are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Fighting Irish are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
- Fighting Irish are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
- Fighting Irish are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
- Fighting Irish are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Fighting Irish are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
- Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Fighting Irish are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Fighting Irish are 38-18-2 ATS in their last 58 games in October.
- Fighting Irish are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Fighting Irish are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Wolfpack last 4 games overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Wolfpack last 4 non-conference games.
- Under is 4-0 in Wolfpack last 4 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 5-1 in Wolfpack last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Wolfpack last 6 games in October.
- Under is 4-1 in Wolfpack last 5 road games.
- Under is 4-1 in Wolfpack last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 4-1 in Wolfpack last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 6-2-1 in Wolfpack last 9 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Fighting Irish last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 7-1 in Fighting Irish last 8 games on fieldturf.
- Over is 5-1 in Fighting Irish last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 games overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 non-conference games.
- Under is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 games in October.
- Over is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 home games.
- Over is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-2 in Fighting Irish last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Fighting Irish last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 24-11 in Fighting Irish last 35 vs. ACC.
