Navy (5-2, 3-2) at Temple (3-5, 1-3)
When: Thursday, November 2nd 2017
Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
Time: 8:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Navy -8.5/58
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The Navy Midshipmen will look to get back on track when they visit the Temple Owls for an AAC contest on Thursday night in Philadelphia. Navy, who had aspirations of finishing as the top Group of Five team, were a perfect 5-0 before setbacks against Memphis and Central Florida by a combined 13 points. The Owls also started out well, going 2-1, but have since dropped four of their last five to fall three games behind East-leading UCF. Temple’s last game was a 31-28 overtime loss against Army in which starting quarterback Logan Marchi missed with an unspecified injury. Frank Nutile got the start and went 20-of-29 for 290 yards with a touchdown and no turnovers, and he may find more success against a Navy team that gives up 28.4 points per game. The Midshipmen got a scare when their quarterback Zach Abey suffered a head injury against UCF, but according to head coach Ken Niumatalolo, he’s ready to go. Navy has the nation’s top rushing attack with an average of 376.1 yards per game, led by Abey’s 1,142 yards and 13 touchdowns.
The Midshipmen fell to Central Florida 31-21 in their last game despite Abey’s school record eighth consecutive 100-yard rushing game. Abey’s 19 completions on the season have gone for a average of 31.9 yards per attempt. Turnovers have been killing Navy lately, committing three last week and five in the loss to Memphis. Navy completes only 34.9% of its pass attempts, so ball control is their game, and the defense isn’t good enough to make up for those kind of mistakes. The Midshipmen committed three turnovers in last year’s 34-10 loss to Temple.
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The Owls got a big game out of running back Ryquell Armstead in the loss to Army, recording season highs of 151 yards rushing and two touchdowns. Armstead, who ran for 14 touchdowns in 2016, has totaled just three this season – all in the last two games. His average yards per carry is way down as well – from 5.9 last season to 4.1 this year. Wide receiver Isaiah Wright has scored a touchdown in three straight games, including a 50-yard TD run versus Army. Temple’s run defense will be tested once again this week and they didn’t fare well against the No. 2 rushing offense in the nation a week ago, allowing 248 yards and three scores to Army.
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I expect a high-scoring game here as both defenses have issues. Temple’s record isn’t that good, but they’ve been competitive, as their last three defeats have come by a combined 14 points. They’re getting way too many points at home for a Thursday night game. I’ll take it.
Pick: Temple +8.5
TRENDS:
- Midshipmen are 2-0-2 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
- Midshipmen are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
- Midshipmen are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.
- Midshipmen are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
- Midshipmen are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Midshipmen are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games in November.
- Midshipmen are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
- Midshipmen are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Midshipmen are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Owls are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Owls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
- Owls are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
- Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
- Owls are 8-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Owls are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 conference games.
- Owls are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS win.
- Owls are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games on grass.
- Owls are 37-14-1 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Owls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Owls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Owls are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games overall.
- Owls are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.
- Owls are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Midshipmen last 4 road games.
- Under is 6-1 in Midshipmen last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Midshipmen last 6 conference games.
- Over is 14-3 in Midshipmen last 17 games in November.
- Under is 18-6 in Midshipmen last 24 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 15-5 in Midshipmen last 20 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 5-2 in Midshipmen last 7 games overall.
- Under is 10-4 in Midshipmen last 14 games on grass.
- Under is 5-0 in Owls last 5 games in November.
- Under is 5-0 in Owls last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Owls last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 7-1 in Owls last 8 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 6-1 in Owls last 7 games overall.
- Under is 6-1 in Owls last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 5-1 in Owls last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Owls last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 13-3 in Owls last 16 conference games.
- Under is 4-1 in Owls last 5 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 9-3 in Owls last 12 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 19-7 in Owls last 26 games on grass.
- Under is 20-8 in Owls last 28 home games.
- Under is 10-4 in Owls last 14 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
- Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Midshipmen are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
