Washington (42-38) at Philadelphia (43-37)
When: Saturday, June 30th 2018
Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Time: 6:05 ET | TV: MASN2, NBCS Philly
Opening Odds: Philadelphia -119/9
The Washington Nationals broke out of their offensive funk in a big way Friday and will look to keep that going when they take on the Philadelphia Phillies in the third of a four-game weekend series on Saturday evening. Washington jumped out to an 11-0 lead en route to a 17-7 thrashing of the Phillies on Friday behind Juan Soto. The rookie phenom became the first teenager in major-league history with a four-hit, two-homer performance as the Nationals evened the series with Philadelphia. Soto also drove in five runs for a Washington team that erupted for a season-best seven homers after producing just three runs during a three-game skid. Bryce Harper blasted his 20th of the season, but just his second this month. Rhys Hoskins hit a two-run blast for the Phillies – his third straight game with a homer – and is batting .324 with eight HRs and 22 RBIs in 19 games since returning from a broken jaw. Carlos Santana hit a two-run shot, giving him four homers and 10 RBIs over his last 10 games, but Odubel Herrera is hitless in eight at-bats in the series and 0-for-19 over his last five games.
Pitchers: Nationals – Jeremy Hellickson (2-0, 2.28 ERA) | Phillies – Vince Velasquez (5-8, 4.69)
Jeremy Hellickson will make his first start since injuring his hamstring in the first inning on June 3rd in Atlanta. Hellickson was lit-up for 11 runs and nine hits over 4.2 innings in a rehab appearance for Single-A Potomac on Sunday. He won his lone career start against his former Philadelphia team when he gave up one unearned run and seven hits over eight innings in August of 2015 while pitching for Arizona.
Vince Velasquez hasn’t been too bad, but his ERA his high because of two really bad outings recently, and both were at home. The Phillies are just 3-6 when Velasquez starts at home and he has an ERA of 6.23, while allowing 11 homers in 47.2 innings at Citizens Bank Park. Velasquez allowed two runs and three hits over six innings in his last start against the Yankees and has allowed just eight hits over 19 innings in his last three starts. He defeated the Nationals on May 5th when he gave up one hit – a solo homer by Wilmer Difo – in five innings, and is 2-2 with a 5.33 ERA in five career outings versus Washington.
I don’t trust Velasquez at home and I didn’t like what I saw from Hellickson in his rehab assignment. After seeing 24 runs cross the plate last night, this one looks like it could be another slugfest. I’ll take the over.
Pick: OVER 9 -115
BETTING TRENDS:
- Nationals are 9-2 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Nationals are 16-5 in their last 21 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.
- Nationals are 5-2 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series.
- Nationals are 2-5 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. National League East.
- Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Nationals are 1-5 in their last 6 overall.
- Nationals are 0-6 in their last 6 road games.
- Nationals are 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series.
- Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. National League East.
- Phillies are 8-3 in their last 11 Saturday games.
- Phillies are 2-5 in Velasquez’s last 7 starts vs. National League East.
- Phillies are 2-5 in Velasquez’s last 7 Saturday starts.
- Phillies are 11-28 in Velasquez’s last 39 starts on grass.
- Phillies are 3-8 in Velasquez’s last 11 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Phillies are 7-19 in Velasquez’s last 26 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Phillies are 1-4 in Velasquez’s last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Phillies are 1-4 in Velasquez’s last 5 home starts.
- Phillies are 3-14 in Velasquez’s last 17 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Phillies are 3-14 in Velasquez’s last 17 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Phillies are 1-5 in Velasquez’s last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Phillies are 1-6 in Velasquez’s last 7 starts.
- Under is 12-3-1 in Nationals last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 8-2 in Nationals last 10 vs. National League East.
- Under is 10-3 in Nationals last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-2 in Nationals last 8 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 20-7 in Nationals last 27 on grass.
- Under is 22-8 in Nationals last 30 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 18-7-1 in Nationals last 26 Saturday games.
- Under is 42-17-6 in Nationals last 65 road games.
- Under is 36-15-3 in Nationals last 54 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 41-18-3 in Nationals last 62 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 20-9 in Nationals last 29 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Phillies last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 on grass.
- Under is 5-0 in Phillies last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-0 in Phillies last 5 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 Saturday games.
- Under is 7-2 in Phillies last 9 vs. National League East.
- Over is 4-0 in Velasquez’s last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 5-2 in Velasquez’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-2 in Velasquez’s last 7 starts vs. National League East.
- Over is 14-6 in Velasquez’s last 20 home starts.
- Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Philadelphia.
- Nationals are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia.
