Missouri (7-5) vs Texas (6-6)
When: Wednesday, December 27th 2017
Where: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Time: 9:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Texas -1.5/59.5
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Two former Big 12 foes will square off in this year’s edition of the Texas Bowl as the Missouri Tigers out of the SEC take on the Texas Longhorns from the Big 12. The Longhorns own a 17-6 record against the Tigers and have won 15 of the last 17 meetings, but Missouri won the most recent 17-5 at home in 2011 – its last season in the Big 12. Both Texas and Missouri are going bowling for the first time in three seasons. Missouri boasts one of the most potent offenses in the country, particularly during its current six-game winning streak. Quarterback Drew Lock has thrown an SEC-record and nation’s-best 43 touchdown passes this season and has helped the Tigers put up at least 45 points in six straight games. The Tigers will have to keep that offense rolling without it’s offensive coordinator, as Josh Heupel was named the new head coach at Central Florida. The Longhorns will be without one key player on each side of the ball, as safety DeShon Elliott and offensive tackle Connor Williams have announced they will skip the game to prepare for the NFL draft. Elliott ranked second on the team in tackles (63) and tackles for loss (8.5) and led the Longhorns with six interceptions and three forced fumbles, while Williams is the team’s top offensive lineman. Linebacker Malik Jefferson might miss the game for different reasons, as the Big 12 Co-Defensive Player of the Year is dealing with a toe injury and is doubtful for the Texas Bowl.
The Longhorns lean mostly on their defense to stay in games, as it ranks 31st in the nation in scoring (21.7 points) and 42nd in total defense (363.6 yards) despite playing in the offense-dominated Big 12. The team’s weakness is its secondary (108th against the pass), particularly with Elliott leaving and cornerback Holton Hill suspended, so the Longhorns could be in for a long night with Lock and the Tigers’ potent passing game. The offense has been very inconsistent, resulting in Shane Buechele and Sam Ehlinger splitting time at quarterback, and coach Tom Herman is leaning toward Buechele to start the bowl game. The rushing attack is 94th in the country at 141.8 yards a game.
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The Tigers are trying to join the 2008 Rutgers team as the only teams in college football history to win eight games after starting 1-5. They emerged from their early-season woes that included an 0-3 start in conference play, thanks to a dynamic offense that has started to click. Missouri ranks 14th nationally in passing (311.9 yards) and 35th in rushing (199.6). The Tigers do have issues on defense, however, as they rank 110th against the pass, but are 13th in the country with 92 tackles for loss. The Tigers held four straight opponents under 20 points before allowing Arkansas to put up 45 in the regular season finale.
NCAA FOOTBALL ODDS – SCORES – PUBLIC PLAYS
I have to lean towards Missouri in this one with key players missing on the Texas defense. The Longhorns are too inconsistent on offense to keep up with Missouri’s potent offense.
Pick: Missouri -2.5
TRENDS:
- Longhorns are 5-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Longhorns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
- Longhorns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Longhorns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
- Longhorns are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
- Longhorns are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
- Longhorns are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. SEC.
- Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
- Tigers are 30-7 ATS in their last 37 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Tigers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Tigers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.
- Tigers are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Tigers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in December.
- Under is 4-0 in Longhorns last 4 games in December.
- Under is 8-1 in Longhorns last 9 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 5-1 in Longhorns last 6 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 13-3 in Longhorns last 16 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Longhorns last 5 vs. SEC.
- Under is 11-3 in Longhorns last 14 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 25-7 in Longhorns last 32 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-2 in Longhorns last 8 neutral site games.
- Under is 18-7-1 in Longhorns last 26 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 40-17 in Longhorns last 57 games overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 Bowl games.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games in December.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 bowl games.
- Over is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 neutral site games.
- Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 vs. Big 12.
- Under is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Tigers last 8 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 6-2 in Tigers last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Under is 16-6-1 in Tigers last 23 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 8-3-1 in Tigers last 12 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Tigers last 7 non-conference games.
- Over is 7-3 in Tigers last 10 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
