Mississippi State vs Georgia Preview, Odds, Trends, & Free Pick [9/23/17]

Mississippi State (3-0, 1-0) at Georgia (3-0, 0-0)
When: Saturday, September 23rd 2017
Where: Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA
Time: 7:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Georgia -4/50

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It’s the battle of the Bulldogs in an SEC-clash Saturday night as Georgia hosts upstart Mississippi State at Sanford Stadium. Mississippi State has entered the national rankings (No. 19) after an impressive rout of LSU last week in its SEC opener, and now it hits the road for a rare matchup against No. 12 Georgia on Saturday. Mississippi State dominated LSU last Saturday as quarterback Nick Fitzgerald accounted for four touchdowns, but will face a much tougher task against the Georgia defense on the road – a team they haven’t played since 2011. Georgia tuned-up for this contest by running over lowly Samford, after posting an impressive 20-19 victory at Notre Dame. Freshman quarterback Jake Fromm has passed for five touchdowns in three games since taking over for the injured Jacob Eason early in the season opener against Appalachian State. Georgia has won 10 of its last 11 meetings with Mississippi State.

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Fitzgerald, the SEC Offensive Player of the Week, finished with 260 yards of total offense against LSU and two touchdowns passing and rushing. The Bulldogs are averaging 47.7 points per game, tops in the conference and ninth nationally. Running back Aeris Williams has put together back-to-back 100-plus yard rushing performances to help spread out the offensive attack. Mississippi State has scored 35 or more points in eight of its last 10 games, dating back to last season. Defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons, the league’s Defensive Lineman of the Week, set career highs in tackles (seven) and sacks (1.5) last week. Mississippi State will travel to Tennessee next week for a matchup with the Volunteers.

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Fromm passed for 165 yards and three touchdowns last week after completing 16-of-29 passes and leading the Bulldogs to an upset victory at Notre Dame. Running backs Nick Chubb (298 yards, four touchdowns) and Sony Michel (162, two) form a terrific 1-2 punch in the backfield. Defensively, the Bulldogs have held opponents to 14.3 points and 266 yards of total offense per game. OLB Lorenzo Carter has recorded three sacks and two forced fumbles while making two fumble recoveries this season. Georgia will travel to Tennessee next week for a matchup with the Volunteers. The Bulldogs travel to Auburn next week for a meeting with the Tigers.

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Mississippi State was very impressive against a highly-regarded LSU team, but road games in the SEC are brutal and they will find that out this week in Athens. Georgia’s offense has not skipped a beat with the freshman quarterback and the defense is as good as it’s been in years. I’ll take the Bulldogs – Georgia, that is.

Pick: Georgia -5

TRENDS:

• Mississippi State Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
• Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
• Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
• Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
• Bulldogs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
• Bulldogs are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

• Georgia Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• Bulldogs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win.
• Bulldogs are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
• Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
• Bulldogs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
• Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

• Over is 4-0 in Mississippi State Bulldogs last 4 road games.
• Over is 4-0 in Bulldogs last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Over is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Over is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 conference games.
• Under is 6-2 in Bulldogs last 8 games in September.
• Under is 11-4 in Bulldogs last 15 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
• Under is 8-3 in Bulldogs last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
• Over is 5-2 in Bulldogs last 7 games on grass.
• Over is 5-2 in Bulldogs last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Under is 12-5 in Bulldogs last 17 games following a straight up win.
• Over is 7-3 in Bulldogs last 10 games overall.
• Under is 7-3 in Bulldogs last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.

• Under is 7-0 in Georgia Bulldogs last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Under is 5-0 in Bulldogs last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
• Under is 4-0 in Bulldogs last 4 games in September.
• Under is 5-0 in Bulldogs last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
• Under is 4-0 in Bulldogs last 4 conference games.
• Under is 9-2 in Bulldogs last 11 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
• Under is 13-3 in Bulldogs last 16 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
• Under is 13-3 in Bulldogs last 16 home games.
• Under is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Under is 17-5 in Bulldogs last 22 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Under is 16-5 in Bulldogs last 21 games following a straight up win.
• Under is 16-5 in Bulldogs last 21 games on grass.
• Under is 19-7 in Bulldogs last 26 games overall.
• Under is 8-3 in Bulldogs last 11 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Under is 15-6 in Bulldogs last 21 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.