Middle Tennessee State (6-6) vs Arkansas State (7-4)
When: Saturday, December 16th 2017
Where: Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, AL
Time: 8:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Arkansas State -3.5/57
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The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders earned their third Bowl trip in a row and this will be their first in three year playing on the mainland, as their last two were in the Bahamas and Hawaii. They will take on former Sun Belt Conference-foes the Arkansas State Red Wolves in the 2017 edition of the Camellia Bowl from Montgomery, Alabama on December 16th. The Blue Raiders and Red Wolves were Sun Belt members from 2001-13 and in the last for Middle Tennessee before they moved to Conference USA, they lost 45-0 to the Red Wolves with the Sun Belt title on the line. The Blue Raiders were picked to compete for the C-USA crown this season, but after a 3-5 start, it looked as if they weren’t even going to make a Bowl. After winning three of its last four games – and averaging 36 points over that stretch – coach Rick Stockstill’s team still didn’t think they’d made it on Selection Sunday, holding a season-ending team meeting before getting word of their selection by the Camellia Bowl. Middle Tennessee fans should be happy with only a four-hour drive from Murfreesboro, TN. The Red Wolves finished a game behind Appalachian State and Troy for the Sun Belt title after losing to the Trojans 32-25 in the season finale – they didn’t play App State. Arkansas State will be seeking their second consecutive Bowl victory after taking care of Central Florida 31-13 in last year’s Cure Bowl.
Quarterback Brent Stockstill has come on strong since returning from a cracked sternum and separated collarbone, which he suffered in the second game of the season against Syracuse. Middle Tennessee State was 3-5 when Stockstill took over as the starter again, and the team is 3-1 since his return, with the only loss coming in overtime to Western Kentucky. The junior has thrown for 1,440 yards and 14 touchdowns and his favorite target is sophomore wide receiver Ty Lee (74 catches, 916 yards, five touchdowns). The running game is rather weak – 90th in the nation at 146.2 yards a game – but this offense is very pass-happy. The defense is ranked 31st overall allowing 349.2 yards a contest. Middle Tennessee State was 1-2 against Power 5 schools, losing to Vanderbilt and Minnesota, while winning at Syracuse.
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Arkansas State has the sixth-best passing attack in the country behind quarterback Justice Hansen. The junior threw for 3,630 yards and 34 touchdowns, including six games with three or more passing scores, although, he did have three games with three or more interceptions. Scoring points won’t be a problem for the Red Wolves, but the defense lets up a lot of yards through the air (242.3). They do have a terrific defensive end in Ja’Von Rolland-Jones, who is the two-time Sun Belt Player of the Year. Rolland-Jones already is the career sacks leader both at Arkansas State and in the Sun Belt Conference, and his 43.5 career sacks put him one shy of breaking the NCAA FBS record of 44, set by Arizona State’s Terrell Suggs.
Arkansas State had a nice season, while the Blue Raiders had to scratch and crawl their way in. I expect Hansen to have a huge day against the Middle Tennessee defense and the Red Wolves will win this in a shootout.
Pick: Arkansas State -3.5
TRENDS:
- Blue Raiders are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. S-Belt.
- Blue Raiders are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games on fieldturf.
- Blue Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Blue Raiders are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Blue Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games.
- Blue Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
- Blue Raiders are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Blue Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Blue Raiders are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
- Blue Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.
- Blue Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Blue Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Bowl games.
- Red Wolves are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Red Wolves are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games overall.
- Red Wolves are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
- Red Wolves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. CUSA.
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Raiders last 4 non-conference games.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Raiders last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Over is 7-0 in Blue Raiders last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Blue Raiders last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-1 in Blue Raiders last 8 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Raiders last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 9-2-1 in Blue Raiders last 12 games overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Blue Raiders last 5 Bowl games.
- Over is 4-1 in Blue Raiders last 5 neutral site games.
- Over is 4-1 in Blue Raiders last 5 bowl games.
- Over is 8-3 in Blue Raiders last 11 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 10-4 in Blue Raiders last 14 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Blue Raiders last 8 games in December.
- Under is 6-1 in Red Wolves last 7 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 12-2 in Red Wolves last 14 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 14-3-1 in Red Wolves last 18 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 4-1 in Red Wolves last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 16-5-1 in Red Wolves last 22 games overall.
- Under is 6-2 in Red Wolves last 8 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 31-12-1 in Red Wolves last 44 non-conference games.
- Favorite is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
- Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
- Blue Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
