Michigan (5-1, 2-1) at Penn State (6-0, 3-0)
When: Saturday, October 21st 2017
Where: Beaver Stadium, State College, PA
Time: 7:30 ET | TV: ABC
Opening Odds: Penn State -11.5/43
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The Penn State Nittany Lions begin a season-defining stretch of games on Saturday night when they host the 15th-ranked Michigan Wolverines at Beaver Stadium. The Wolverines are going through a sluggish stretch that includes a home loss to Michigan State and an overtime win against lowly Indiana, and they hope to hang around against a dominant Nittany Lions team that’s coming off a bye week. A loss by Michigan would virtually eliminate them from winning the Big Ten East, while the Lions are sitting atop with Ohio State and Michigan State. Penn State is coming off back-to-back routs of Indiana and Northwestern, but faces a brutal three-week stretch that also includes visits to No. 6 Ohio State and No. 19 Michigan State. The Nittany Lions have won 14 straight regular-season games since a 49-10 loss at Ann Arbor a year ago in which the Wolverines posted a 515-191 advantage in total yards – including 326-70 on the ground. Michigan owns a 13-7 series advantage and has won three straight meetings.
The Wolverines are ranked 11th in the Big Ten in passing offense as senior John O’Korn has struggled since taking over the starting job from the injured Wilton Speight. O’Korn has zero touchdowns, three interceptions and a completion percentage of 47.3% over the last two weeks. Michigan’s top three rushers – Ty Isaac, Karan Higdon and Chris Evans – combined for 211 yards and four TDs in last year’s rout of Penn State. Isaac is averaging 39 rushing yards over his last four games after recording at least 114 in each of the first two contests. If Michigan’s offense can generate anything on offense, they are confident their defense will do the rest. The Wolverines have the top-ranked defense in the nation, allowing just 223.8 yards a game – 3rd in pass defense – 6th in rush defense – and 8th in points allowed (14.7). Michigan has held all opponents to under 21 points this season.
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Heisman-candidate running back Saquon Barkley (Big Ten-leading 1,302 all-purpose yards) and quarterback Trace McSorley (Big Ten-leading 266.2 passing yards per game) lead a productive offense, but the Nittany Lions’ defense is gaining more credit with every week and tops the country with an average of nine points allowed. Linebacker Jason Cabinda leads the way with 40 tackles and defensive end Shaka Toney has three of the team’s 17 sacks and two of its nine forced fumbles. Barkley needs 100 rushing yards to surpass four others – D.J. Dozier, Curtis Enis, Blair Thomas and Tony Hunt – and move into third on Penn State’s all-time list.
Michigan’s defense has been rock solid this season, but they haven’t faced an offense as dynamic as Penn State’s. The Lions have a couple of intangibles going their way in this one. It’s a revenge game and it’s also the annual white-out game, so I expect the home cooking to carry this team to an easy win over a Michigan team that is having trouble moving the football.
Pick: Penn State -9.5
TRENDS:
- Wolverines are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Wolverines are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Wolverines are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.
- Wolverines are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Wolverines are 1-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Wolverines are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Wolverines are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Wolverines are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in October.
- Nittany Lions are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Nittany Lions are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Nittany Lions are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
- Nittany Lions are 10-0-2 ATS in their last 12 games on grass.
- Nittany Lions are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Nittany Lions are 13-1-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
- Nittany Lions are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 conference games.
- Nittany Lions are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.
- Nittany Lions are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.
- Nittany Lions are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Nittany Lions are 7-1-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Nittany Lions are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Nittany Lions are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Nittany Lions are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Wolverines last 4 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 6-0 in Wolverines last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 9-2 in Wolverines last 11 road games.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Wolverines last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Wolverines last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 19-7-1 in Wolverines last 27 games overall.
- Over is 11-5 in Wolverines last 16 games in October.
- Over is 13-6 in Wolverines last 19 conference games.
- Under is 4-0 in Nittany Lions last 4 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Nittany Lions last 6 games overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Nittany Lions last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Nittany Lions last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 4-1 in Nittany Lions last 5 games on grass.
- Over is 6-2 in Nittany Lions last 8 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Nittany Lions last 7 games following a bye week.
- Over is 5-2 in Nittany Lions last 7 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 7-3 in Nittany Lions last 10 games in October.
- Under is 7-3 in Nittany Lions last 10 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Penn State.
- Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
- Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
