Michigan State (4-1) at Ohio State (5-0)
When: Saturday, October 5th 2019
Where: Ohio Stadium,
Columbus, Ohio
Time: 7:30 ET | TV: ABC
Opening Odds: Ohio State -21/48
The Ohio State Buckeyes are starting to turn some heads including those who vote in the polls, receiving seven first-place votes after last week’s thrashing at Nebraska. The Buckeyes will look for their 11th straight victory this Saturday night when they host the Michigan State Spartans, a team that has given Ohio State two of their five Big Ten losses since 2012. Ohio State went into Lincoln as 17-point favorites and did not disappoint, building a 38-0 lead in the first half en route to a 48-7 victory over the Cornhuskers – an outcome we predicted right here. This is the start of a brutal stretch for Michigan State, who will play at Wisconsin next week, then host Penn State on October 26th. The Spartans have not been tested in conference play yet, beating cellar-dwellers Indiana and Northwestern after losing 10-7 at home to Arizona State. The defense is putting up good numbers, but the offense is what’s keeping this team down. The last two meetings have been a nightmare for the Spartans in this series, losing 48-3 in Columbus two years ago and 26-6 at home in 2018. Michigan State did pull off a stunner at Ohio State in 2015 (17-14) as 14.5-point underdogs under current head coach Mark Dantonio.
Michigan State’s defense is ranked seventh in the country in yards per game (254.4) and fourth against the run (56.4), but they haven’t seen an offense like this yet. The Spartans allowed Indiana to roll-up 358 yards of total offense last week and convert 6-of-13 on third down. Quarterback Brian Lewerke, who is leading the Big Ten in passing yards and has thrown only one interception, was on the losing end of the last two meetings with Ohio State. He’ll need to find his top target – Darrell Stewart (conference-leading 35 receptions for 556 yards) – early and often if Michigan State is to have any chance at an upset.
Ohio State’s offense has been rolling under quarterback Justin Fields, but he too, will have his first big test against a solid defense. The Buckeyes outgained Nebraska 580-231 with Fields accounting for for 23 touchdowns (16 passing, seven rushing) and 138 points overall on the season. Running back J.K. Dobbins ran for 177 yards last week and has 654 in five games this season. Not only is the offense ranked eighth in FBS in total yards, but the defense is second in fewest allowed at 224.2 per game. Chase Young leads the country with eight sacks, while cornerback Jeff Okudah leads an equally solid secondary with three interceptions in the past two weeks. The Buckeyes haven’t surrendered a touchdown to Michigan State since 2016.
I just don’t see how this Michigan State team can generate enough offense to stay in the game. The Buckeyes are rolling now and won’t let up after a huge win last week. They are sound on both sides of the ball and will win this game easily.
Pick: Ohio State -20 (More Week 6 Free Picks)
Betting Trends:
Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Spartans are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Spartans are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Spartans are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.
Spartans are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Buckeyes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
Buckeyes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Buckeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 7-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Buckeyes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in October.
Under is 11-2 in Spartans last 13 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 road games.
Under is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 7-2 in Spartans last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 7-2 in Spartans last 9 conference games.
Under is 10-3 in Spartans last 13 games overall.
Under is 5-2 in Spartans last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Spartans last 7 games following a straight up win.
Under is 5-2 in Spartans last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 5-2 in Spartans last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 9-4 in Spartans last 13 games on fieldturf.
Over is 3-0-1 in Buckeyes last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Buckeyes last 6 games in October.
Over is 9-2 in Buckeyes last 11 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 8-2 in Buckeyes last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 4-1 in Buckeyes last 5 conference games.
Over is 18-5 in Buckeyes last 23 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Over is 9-3 in Buckeyes last 12 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 5-2-1 in Buckeyes last 8 games on fieldturf.
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Ohio State.
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Underdog is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Road team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
