Miami FL (10-1) vs Clemson (11-1)
When: Saturday, December 2nd 2017
Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Time: 8:00 ET | TV: ABC
Opening Odds: Clemson -6.5/48
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The Miami Hurricanes may have blown their dream season last week, but have a chance to atone for that when they take on the Clemson Tigers in the ACC Championship Game on Saturday night in Charlotte, NC. The Hurricanes were in position to clinch a spot in the CFP with a win this Saturday against Clemson before last week’s 24-14 loss at Pittsburgh ruined their bid for a perfect season. Miami slipped to No. 7 in the playoff rankings, meaning even with a win over the Tigers, it might need some help to get into the four-team field. Clemson’s national title defense seemingly took a hit with a 27-24 loss at Syracuse on October 13th, but the team has climbed back to the top of the College Football Playoff rankings with five straight victories, including a 34-10 rout of rival South Carolina last week. The teams haven’t met since the 2015 season when the Miami program hit a low-point with a 58-0 home loss to coach Dabo Swinney’s bunch. The Tigers have won a school-record 10 straight games against top-25 opponents.
The Hurricanes’ success this year can be attributed to many things, but the most obvious is the turnover margin. Miami has forced 29 turnovers this season and have committed only 12 on offense. The defense has been up to virtually every challenge, but the question is whether the offense can bounce back from last week’s ugly outing. Miami gained only 232 yards of offense against Pittsburgh and were 4-for-15 on 3rd down conversions. Quarterback Malik Rosier completed less than 50% of his passes for the fourth time this season and will need a strong effort against a terrific Clemson defense. Rosier has accounted for 30 touchdowns (25 pass, five rush), matching Vinny Testaverde’s school record set during his Heisman Trophy season of 1986. The Hurricanes will be without two of their top three receivers as Ahmmon Richards tore the meniscus in his left knee during practice Wednesday and will need surgery, further depleting a corps that also lost tight end Christopher Herndon IV to a season-ending knee injury against Pitt.
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The Tigers enter the ACC title game as the sixth-best overall defense in the country (283.2) and fourth in points allowed at 13.6. Last week against the Gamecocks, Clemson held them to 207 total yards – the seventh time this season the Tigers have allowed fewer than 250, including each of the last three games. The dominant defense overshadows an offense that ranks in the top 25 nationally in total yards (459 per game) and scoring (35.2 points). Leading rusher Travis Etienne (720 yards, 12 touchdowns) is nursing a leg injury and is questionable for Saturday’s contest. Quarterback Kelly Bryant has passed for 2,426 yards with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions while rushing for 639 yards and 10 scores. He likes to spread the ball around as three receivers have at least 40 catches and 400 yards receiving on the season. Clemson has won 55 straight games when holding opponents under 23 points.
My initial thought was to take Miami in this game thinking they were just looking ahead to the ACC Championship Game, but upon further review, I can’t see them generating enough offense to keep up. If Miami’s defense can’t create turnovers, they will get killed. Clemson’s offense is underrated with Bryant under center. I think the Tigers roll here.
Pick: Clemson -9.5
TRENDS:
- Hurricanes are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Hurricanes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Hurricanes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
- Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
- Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in December.
- Hurricanes are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
- Tigers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.
- Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in December.
- Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Tigers are 6-2-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Tigers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Tigers are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.
- Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
- Tigers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Tigers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
- Under is 4-0 in Hurricanes last 4 games in December.
- Under is 4-0 in Hurricanes last 4 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 5-0 in Hurricanes last 5 neutral site games.
- Under is 8-1 in Hurricanes last 9 games overall.
- Under is 8-1 in Hurricanes last 9 games on grass.
- Under is 7-1 in Hurricanes last 8 conference games.
- Under is 6-1 in Hurricanes last 7 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Hurricanes last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-2 in Hurricanes last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Tigers last 7 conference games.
- Under is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-2-1 in Tigers last 9 games overall.
- Under is 6-2-1 in Tigers last 9 games on grass.
- Over is 5-2 in Tigers last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2-1 in Tigers last 8 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 5-2 in Tigers last 7 games in December.
- Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
- Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Hurricanes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
