Miami OH (8-5) vs Louisiana (10-3)
When: Monday, January 6th 2020
Where: Ladd-Peebles Stadium,
Mobile, Alabama
Time: 7:30 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Louisiana -14/56
The LendingTree Alabama Bowl – formerly Dollar General, GoDaddy, GMAC & Mobile Alabama – is the very last bowl game before the National Championship Game on January 13th. This year’s Alabama Bowl features the Miami Redhawks against one of the best rushing teams in the country in the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns. This is Miami’s second bowl in three years under head coach Chuck Martin after losing 17-16 as 14-point underdogs to Mississippi State in the 2016 St. Petersburg Bowl. This is Louisiana’s first trip to Mobile and are 4-2 in bowls after a 41-24 loss to Tulane last year. Off a 5-7 season with just 10 returning starters, the Redhawks started an expected 1-3 in non-conference play, then won five of their final six MAC games and won the conference championship over Central Michigan. Miami went 5-0 in games decided by seven points or less, but come into this contest as two-touchdown dogs. Louisiana started the season with a 10-point loss to Mississippi State, then won four straight before falling to Appalachian State 17-7. The Cajuns finished with six straight wins, but fell once again to App State in the Sun Belt Title game 45-38. Miami is 2-0 all-time versus Louisiana, but they haven’t played since 1993.
Miami didn’t allow more than 24 points in any of its victories, but surrendered 35 or more points in each of its losses and were one of the better teams in the nation in getting after the opposing quarterback. The Redhawks ranked in the top 20 with 38 sacks with Ivan Pace Jr. leading the way with seven but four others, including Kameron Butler and Doug Costin, have at least four sacks for a defense that forced 20 turnovers. Brett Gabert, freshman, completed 53.7 percent of his passes for 2,163 yards and 11 touchdowns with eight interceptions but lead his team to a 5-1 finish down the stretch. Running backs Jaylon Bester and Tyre Shelton combined for 1,217 yards and 14 touchdowns for a Redhawks team that averaged 24.7 points per game.
Louisiana has a terrific rushing attack led by Kevin Dotson, the highest rated guard in the nation by Pro Football Focus, and fellow All-Sun Belt Conference first team offensive lineman Robert Hunt. The Cajuns rushed for 265.3 yards per game (seventh in FBS) and score 41 touchdowns on the ground (third). Elijah Mitchell led the way with 1,092 yards and was one of three players to run for at least 796 yards for Sun Belt Coach of the Year Billy Napier. Louisiana boasts the No. 11 scoring offense (38.8) in the nation, and their defense ranked 21st in FBS in points allowed (19.9). The unit is led by defensive lineman Zi’Yon Hill, linebacker Joe Dillon and defensive back Michael Jacquet III. Dillon had seven of the team’s 30 sacks.
Louisiana is the better team, but I like Miami’s ability on defense to slow down the Cajuns, while the Redhawks offense can control the clock, keeping this one close.
Pick: Miami OH +14 (Jay Cooper’s Free Bowl Picks)
Betting Trends:
Ragin’ Cajuns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
Ragin’ Cajuns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
Ragin’ Cajuns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Ragin’ Cajuns are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Ragin’ Cajuns are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Ragin’ Cajuns are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite.
Ragin’ Cajuns are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
Ragin’ Cajuns are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games overall.
Ragin’ Cajuns are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Redhawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as an underdog.
Redhawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.
Redhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Redhawks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Redhawks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
Redhawks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.
Redhawks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Redhawks are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.
Under is 4-0 in Ragin’ Cajuns last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 6-1 in Ragin’ Cajuns last 7 games as a favorite.
Over is 5-1 in Ragin’ Cajuns last 6 games on fieldturf.
Under is 4-1 in Ragin’ Cajuns last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 4-1 in Ragin’ Cajuns last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 6-2 in Ragin’ Cajuns last 8 games overall.
Over is 6-2 in Ragin’ Cajuns last 8 vs. MAC.
Over is 8-3 in Ragin’ Cajuns last 11 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 10-4 in Ragin’ Cajuns last 14 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 15-6-1 in Ragin’ Cajuns last 22 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Over is 35-16 in Ragin’ Cajuns last 51 non-conference games.
Under is 5-0 in Redhawks last 5 games following a ATS win.
Over is 7-1 in Redhawks last 8 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 6-1 in Redhawks last 7 games following a straight up win.
Under is 6-1 in Redhawks last 7 neutral site games as an underdog.
Under is 6-1 in Redhawks last 7 neutral site games.
Under is 5-1 in Redhawks last 6 games overall.
Over is 5-1 in Redhawks last 6 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Redhawks last 6 games on fieldturf.
Over is 4-1 in Redhawks last 5 non-conference games.
