NY Mets (68-66) at Philadelphia (69-64)
When: Saturday, August 31, 2019
Where: Citizens Bank Park,
Philadelphia, PA
Time: 4:05 ET | TV: FS1
Opening Odds: Philadelphia -115/9.5
The gap in the race for the National League’s second wild card spot is starting to widen, as the Philadelphia Phillies continue to lose games they shouldn’t even with their ace on the mound. The New York Mets snapped a six-game losing streak and handed the Phillies an 11-5 beating on Friday night and go for the series win on Saturday with Steven Matz opposing former Met Jason Vargas. Philadelphia’s bullpen spoiled a strong start from Aaron Nola, as the Mets scored all 11 runs in the final three innings to stay within five games of the Chicago Cubs in the wild card race, while the Phillies fell 3.5 back. Todd Frazier smacked a pair of three-run home runs in the victory, while catcher Wilson Ramos extended his hitting streak to 23 games. The Phillies have traded wins and losses over the last eight games and saw their six-game home winning streak against the Mets come to an end Friday. Rhys Hoskins, who has had a terrible month, is showing signs of breaking out by going 5-for-9 with three extra-base hits in his last two games. The teams will be in the national spotlight this weekend with Saturday’s game on FS1 and Sunday’s contest on ESPN at 7:05 ET.
Pitchers: Mets – Steven Matz (8-8, 4.06 ERA) | Phillies – Jason Vargas (6-6, 4.09)
Matz has been very consistent of late, allowing two runs or less in eight of his last nine starts including limiting Atlanta to one run on two hits in six innings on Sunday but suffered a 2-1 loss. Matz has been terrible in two of his three outings versus Philadelphia this season, allowing 15 runs over 4.1 innings in losses, but pitched six one-run innings in a victory over them back in April.
Vargas will start against the Mets for the first time in 13 years and is still looking for his first win in five starts since joining the Phillies in a trade from New York at the deadline. The Pirates tagged him for four runs and seven hits over six innings last time out, but the Phillies offense bailed him out in the 6-5 win on Monday.
These offenses came to life late in the game on Friday and I expect them to pick that up right away on Saturday. Matz has been good, but has been rocked in both of his starts this year at Citizens Bank Park. I can see the Mets hitting their former teammate as well in this contest. The over is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Saturday. He is 119-82 +2468 units on the season after a 20-9 run!
Pick: OVER 9.5 -110
BETTING TRENDS:
Mets are 7-1 in their last 8 Saturday games.
Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
Mets are 12-3 in their last 15 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Mets are 6-2 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Mets are 20-7 in their last 27 games following a win.
Mets are 7-3 in their last 10 during game 2 of a series.
Mets are 10-21 in their last 31 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Mets are 8-20 in their last 28 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Mets are 2-6 in their last 8 vs. National League East.
Mets are 1-4 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Mets are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Mets are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Mets are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Mets are 1-6 in their last 7 overall.
Mets are 1-6 in their last 7 games on grass.
Mets are 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Mets are 7-2 in Matz’s last 9 starts with 5 days of rest.
Mets are 5-2 in Matz’s last 7 Saturday starts.
Mets are 2-5 in Matz’s last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Mets are 2-6 in Matz’s last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Mets are 8-24 in Matz’s last 32 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Mets are 2-6 in Matz’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Mets are 1-4 in Matz’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Mets are 1-5 in Matz’s last 6 starts vs. National League East.
Mets are 1-5 in Matz’s last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Mets are 1-6 in Matz’s last 7 road starts.
Mets are 0-5 in Matz’s last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss.
Phillies are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 19-9 in their last 28 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 33-16 in their last 49 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Phillies are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. National League East.
Phillies are 2-8 in their last 10 Saturday games.
Phillies are 1-5 in their last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-0-1 in Mets last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 8-1-1 in Mets last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 5-1 in Mets last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 15-5-3 in Mets last 23 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 3-1-1 in Mets last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 19-9-5 in Mets last 33 vs. National League East.
Under is 3-0-1 in Matz’s last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 2-0-2 in Matz’s last 4 starts vs. National League East.
Under is 6-1-1 in Matz’s last 8 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 13-3-1 in Matz’s last 17 Saturday starts.
Under is 14-4-2 in Matz’s last 20 starts with 5 days of rest.
Under is 3-1-1 in Matz’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-2-2 in Matz’s last 9 starts on grass.
Under is 5-2-2 in Matz’s last 9 starts overall.
Under is 22-9-2 in Matz’s last 33 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Under is 16-7-3 in Matz’s last 26 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 in Phillies last 7 vs. National League East.
Under is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Over is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Over is 5-2 in Phillies last 7 overall.
Over is 5-2 in Phillies last 7 on grass.
Under is 5-2 in Phillies last 7 Saturday games.
Under is 4-1 in Vargas’ last 5 starts on grass.
Under is 4-1 in Vargas’ last 5 starts overall.
Over is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia.
Mets are 2-7 in the last 9 meetings.
Mets are 1-5 in Matz’s last 6 starts vs. Phillies.
Mets are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in Philadelphia.
Mets are 0-4 in Matz’s last 4 road starts vs. Phillies.
