NY Mets (53-69) vs Philadelphia (68-55)
When: Sunday, August 19th 2018
Where: BB&T Ballpark at Historic Bowman Field,
Williamsport, PA
Time: 7:10 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Philadelphia -177/9
The Philadelphia Phillies rebounded from an embarrassing 24-4 loss in the opener of their five-game series with the New York Mets by taking the next two, but the Phils ran into the best pitcher in the National League on Saturday. Jacob deGrom threw a complete game in New York’s 3-1 victory to even the series at two apiece. The final game will be held at Bowman Field in Williamsport, Pennsylvania in the second annual MLB Little League Classic. Devin Mesoraco homered while rookie Jeff McNeil contributed an RBI triple as New York improved to 21-21 since July 1st and kept the Phillies in second place behind the Atlanta Braves in the National League East. A victory Sunday would give the Mets their 20th series win in the last 26 tries against Philadelphia. The Phillies will go with Nick Pivetta in the finale against the struggling Jason Vargas at the home of the Williamsport Cutters of the New York-Penn League. Mets 3B Todd Frazier, OF Michael Conforto and Phillies SS Scott Kingery all played in the Little League World Series as kids. The Pirates defeated the Cardinals 6-3 last year in the inaugural event.
Pitchers: Mets – Jason Vargas (2-8, 8.10 ERA) | Phillies – Nick Pivetta (7-9, 4.37)
Vargas is coming off his longest outing of the season, but has been awful overall in his 13 starts. Since coming off the disabled list last month, Vargas is 0-2 with a 6.89 ERA in four starts, but limited the Baltimore Orioles to two runs in a no-decision Tuesday on the road. Vargas last faced the Phillies in 2011 and threw a complete game, three-hit shutout.
Pivetta is trending the other way, going 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in three August starts after limiting the MLB-best Boston Red Sox to a run and three hits over six innings in his last outing. Pivetta has pitched exactly six innings in four consecutive starts and boasts 31 strikeouts against four walks in that span. He has yet to face the Mets this year after going 2-1 with a 4.98 ERA in four starts against them a season ago.
The Mets offense has sputtered the last few days and they will need as many runs as possible with Vargas on the mound. The lefty has been terrible this year and the Phillies should have success against him tonight. Pivetta has been brilliant lately and the Mets lineup shouldn’t scare him. I like the Phillies on the runline here.
Pick: Phillies -1.5 -105
BETTING TRENDS:
- Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 5 of a series.
- Mets are 38-80 in their last 118 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mets are 19-44 in their last 63 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mets are 12-30 in their last 42 games following a win.
- Mets are 8-21 in their last 29 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Mets are 1-4 in Vargas’ last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Mets are 1-5 in Vargas’ last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mets are 1-6 in Vargas’ last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Mets are 2-12 in Vargas’ last 14 starts.
- Mets are 2-12 in Vargas’ last 14 starts on grass.
- Mets are 0-4 in Vargas’ last 4 road starts.
- Mets are 0-5 in Vargas’ last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Phillies are 6-2 in their last 8 vs. National League East.
- Phillies are 22-8 in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Phillies are 19-7 in their last 26 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Phillies are 19-7 in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Phillies are 5-2 in their last 7 games following a loss.
- Phillies are 45-22 in their last 67 home games.
- Phillies are 2-5 in their last 7 Sunday games.
- Phillies are 11-2 in Pivetta’s last 13 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Phillies are 8-2 in Pivetta’s last 10 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Phillies are 7-3 in Pivetta’s last 10 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Phillies are 2-5 in Pivetta’s last 7 home starts.
- Phillies are 1-4 in Pivetta’s last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Over is 9-3-1 in Mets last 13 games following a win.
- Over is 5-2 in Mets last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 5-2 in Mets last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 9-4-1 in Mets last 14 Sunday games.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Vargas’ last 4 starts on grass.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Vargas’ last 4 starts overall.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Vargas’ last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Vargas’ last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 during game 5 of a series.
- Under is 14-5-1 in Phillies last 20 overall.
- Under is 14-5-1 in Phillies last 20 on grass.
- Under is 33-14-4 in Phillies last 51 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 40-17-4 in Phillies last 61 games following a loss.
- Under is 34-15-3 in Phillies last 52 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 18-8-1 in Phillies last 27 vs. National League East.
- Under is 40-19-2 in Phillies last 61 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 8-1-2 in Pivetta’s last 11 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Pivetta’s last 8 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Pivetta’s last 5 Sunday starts.
- Over is 4-1 in Pivetta’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Pivetta’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 8-3 in Pivetta’s last 11 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-2 in Pivetta’s last 7 home starts.
- Over is 7-3-1 in Pivetta’s last 11 starts on grass.
- Over is 7-3-1 in Pivetta’s last 11 starts overall.
- Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.
- Mets are 44-20 in the last 64 meetings in Philadelphia.
- Mets are 62-30 in the last 92 meetings.
