NY Mets (79-73) at Cincinnati (72-81)
When: Friday, September 20, 2019
Where: Great American Ballpark,
Cincinnati, Ohio
Time: 7:10 ET | TV: SNY, FS Ohio
Opening Odds: New York -150/8
The New York Mets have a big chance to make a move in the wild card standings with their next seven games coming against sub-.500 teams starting Friday night in Cincinnati against the Reds. New York will begin the weekend 3.5 games out of the second NL wild card spot and will send ace Jacob deGrom to the mound seeking his 10th victory. New York will host NL-worst Miami starting on Monday for four games. The team began a six-game road trip by taking two of three at Colorado including a big ninth inning rally on Wednesday in the 7-4 victory. Slugger Pete Alonso belted his 49th homer in that contest and is three shy of tying Aaron Judge (2017) for the most by a rookie in one season, but outfielder Michael Conforto is hitless in his last 19 at-bats. The Reds just took two of three from wild card-contender Chicago Cubs this week and return home from a nine-game road trip in which they won the last two series. Eugenio Suarez is right behind Alonso after hitting his 48th homer on Wednesday, passing Andres Galarraga for the most by a Venezuelan-born player. Cincinnati will have their ace on the mound as well in righty Luis Castillo.
Pitchers: Mets – Jacob deGrom (9-8, 2.61 ERA) | Reds – Luis Castillo (15-6, 3.22)
deGrom has followed up two rough outings with two gems against the Diamondbacks and Dodgers by allowing one run total with 19 strikeouts and six hits surrendered over 14 innings of work. He allowed four runs in each of his two previous starts and served-up three homers in those contests. deGrom has pitched exactly seven innings in 10 of his last 11 starts and is seeking a second consecutive NL Cy Young Award. He allowed just three hits in seven scoreless innings against Cincinnati on May 1st, but didn’t factor into the decision in New York’s 1-0 setback.
Castillo is coming off two outings against the Arizona Diamondbacks and pitched well enough despite having some control issues lately. The 26-year-old allowed a total of four runs in 12.2 innings while striking out 13 and walking six on those two outings. Castillo, who boats 211 strikeouts on the season, allowed two runs and five hits in 6.2 innings at New York on April 30th.
I wanted to take the over in this one, but I’m afraid deGrom is going to be too dominate here. Castillo is very good, but walks have been a concern as he has now surpassed a career-high in innings pitched. I’ll give the edge to the Mets.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Friday. He is 130-90 +2698 units on the season after a 31-17 run!
Pick: Mets -145
BETTING TRENDS:
Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Mets are 17-5 in their last 22 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Mets are 9-3 in their last 12 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Mets are 6-2 in their last 8 games following an off day.
Mets are 20-7 in their last 27 vs. a team with a losing record.
Mets are 27-10 in their last 37 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Mets are 8-3 in their last 11 road games.
Mets are 18-7 in their last 25 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Mets are 23-9 in their last 32 games following a win.
Mets are 7-3 in their last 10 overall.
Mets are 7-3 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Mets are 7-3 in their last 10 games on grass.
Mets are 1-5 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Mets are 4-0 in deGrom’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Mets are 21-9 in deGrom’s last 30 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Mets are 2-10 in deGrom’s last 12 starts during game 1 of a series.
Mets are 0-6 in deGrom’s last 6 starts vs. National League Central.
Mets are 0-7 in deGrom’s last 7 Friday starts.
Reds are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Reds are 12-4 in their last 16 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Reds are 5-2 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Reds are 5-2 in their last 7 overall.
Reds are 5-2 in their last 7 games on grass.
Reds are 1-5 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
Reds are 1-11 in their last 12 games following an off day.
Reds are 4-1 in Castillo’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
Reds are 4-1 in Castillo’s last 5 starts.
Reds are 4-1 in Castillo’s last 5 starts on grass.
Reds are 2-6 in Castillo’s last 8 starts with 6 days of rest.
Under is 5-0 in Mets last 5 overall.
Under is 5-0 in Mets last 5 on grass.
Under is 6-0 in Mets last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 6-1-2 in Mets last 9 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 5-1 in Mets last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 4-1 in Mets last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 5-2-1 in Mets last 8 road games.
Over is 5-2 in Mets last 7 Friday games.
Over is 5-2 in Mets last 7 vs. National League Central.
Under is 5-2-1 in Mets last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 17-7-4 in Mets last 28 games following an off day.
Under is 9-4-1 in Mets last 14 games following a win.
Under is 4-0 in deGrom’s last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
Under is 6-0 in deGrom’s last 6 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in deGrom’s last 6 starts on grass.
Under is 5-1 in deGrom’s last 6 starts overall.
Under is 4-1 in deGrom’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 11-3-1 in deGrom’s last 15 Friday starts.
Under is 5-2 in deGrom’s last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Over is 14-6-1 in deGrom’s last 21 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 14-6 in deGrom’s last 20 starts vs. National League Central.
Under is 4-0 in Reds last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 7-1-1 in Reds last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 7-1 in Reds last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 6-1-1 in Reds last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Reds last 6 overall.
Under is 5-1 in Reds last 6 on grass.
Under is 5-1 in Reds last 6 vs. National League East.
Under is 9-2-1 in Reds last 12 home games.
Under is 4-1-1 in Reds last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 8-2 in Reds last 10 games following a win.
Under is 9-3-1 in Reds last 13 games following an off day.
Under is 6-2-1 in Reds last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 10-4 in Reds last 14 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 24-10-3 in Reds last 37 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Under is 9-1-1 in Castillo’s last 11 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 12-3 in Castillo’s last 15 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 20-6-1 in Castillo’s last 27 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 11-4 in Castillo’s last 15 starts during game 1 of a series.
Under is 5-2 in Castillo’s last 7 starts with 6 days of rest.
Under is 5-2 in Castillo’s last 7 starts vs. National League East.
Under is 24-10-1 in Castillo’s last 35 starts on grass.
Under is 24-10-1 in Castillo’s last 35 starts overall.
Over is 7-3 in Castillo’s last 10 Friday starts.
Under is 7-3-1 in Castillo’s last 11 home starts.
Over is 4-1 in deGrom’s last 5 starts vs. Reds.
Mets are 23-8 in the last 31 meetings.
Mets are 13-5 in the last 18 meetings in Cincinnati.
