Memphis (5-1, 2-1) at Houston (4-2, 2-1)
When: Thursday, October 19th 2017
Where: TDECU Stadium, Houston, TX
Time: 8:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Houston -3.5/62
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The Memphis Tigers and Houston Cougars will hook up in a key American Athletic Conference Western Division showdown on Thursday night in Houston and both are trying to keep pace with Navy (3-1). The Tigers can gain the upper hand and become bowl eligible for the fourth straight season – a program first – with a win. Memphis quarterback Riley Ferguson has 10 touchdowns and no interceptions in his past two games while the Tigers have scored 100 points during that span. The Cougars have won 11 straight conference home games, and six of the past seven against Memphis, but the last three meetings have been decided by four points or fewer. Memphis has won 11 straight regular-season non-Saturday games, including six on the road.
Ferguson leads the conference with 1,814 passing yards and 19 touchdowns, including nine TD passes to his favorite target Anthony Miller (45 catches, 606 yards). Ferguson and Miller have connected for 22 total touchdown passes, the most among active QB-WR combinations. Darrell Henderson (542 rushing yards, three TDs) is averaging 8.1 yards per carry to lead the rushing attack while Tony Pollard (39.3 yards per return) has two kickoff returns for touchdowns this season. Sophomore Austin Hall leads the Tigers with 44 tackles and recorded three of the team’s five takeaways (two interceptions, fumble) in last week’s huge 30-27 victory over Navy. Despite just one loss on the season, the Tigers are ranked near the bottom of every defensive category including points allowed (33.8).
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Quarterback Kyle Postma (805 yards, 4 TDs, 5 INT) has made three straight starts but had three turnovers in Saturday’s 45-17 loss at Tulsa. Kyle Allen (771 passing yards, 4 TDs, 4 INT) started the first three games but has not played since being replaced in the fourth quarter of the Texas Tech game on September 23rd. Steven Dunbar (team-best 40 catches for 462 yards) is coming off his first 100-yard game of the season while Linell Bonner (37 catches, 344 yards, three TDs) had five catches for 44 yards in his return from a concussion. Matthew Adams and D’Juan Hines each have 57 tackles for a defense that has 10 sacks and 12 takeaways and ranks 39th in the nation in points allowed per game (21.0).
THIS WEEK’S TOP 25 PREDICTIONS
Both teams will be working on a short week, so no advantage there. Memphis is a better all-around team as Houston has taken a step back with the departure of head coach Tom Herman. I worry about Memphis being able to stop anyone on defense, but they’ve won all but one of their games, so I’ll take them in the underdog role here.
Pick: Memphis +2.5
TRENDS:
- Tigers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games on turf.
- Tigers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
- Tigers are 15-31-5 ATS in their last 51 games in October.
- Tigers are 7-19-3 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Tigers are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Tigers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.
- Tigers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.
- Tigers are 2-9-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
- Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Cougars are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Cougars are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
- Cougars are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
- Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
- Cougars are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 conference games.
- Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games on turf.
- Over is 7-1 in Tigers last 8 Thursday games.
- Under is 23-6-1 in Tigers last 30 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 7-2 in Tigers last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 6-2 in Tigers last 8 games overall.
- Over is 6-2 in Tigers last 8 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 5-2 in Tigers last 7 games in October.
- Over is 14-6 in Tigers last 20 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Cougars last 4 games in October.
- Under is 6-0 in Cougars last 6 home games.
- Under is 6-0 in Cougars last 6 games on turf.
- Under is 4-0 in Cougars last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 4-0 in Cougars last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-1 in Cougars last 7 conference games.
- Under is 7-2 in Cougars last 9 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 23-8-1 in Cougars last 32 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
- Under is 19-7 in Cougars last 26 games overall.
- Under is 9-4 in Cougars last 13 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Over is 9-4 in Cougars last 13 Thursday games.
- Under is 37-18 in Cougars last 55 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Houston.
