Memphis vs Connecticut Preview, Trends, & Free Pick [10/6/17]

Memphis (3-1, 0-1) at Connecticut (1-3, 0-2)
When: Friday, October 6th 2017
Where: Pratt & Whitney Stadium, East Hartford, CT
Time: 7:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Memphis -16/70

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The Memphis Tigers suffered a big blow last week and will look to rebound with a better effort when they visit the Connecticut Huskies on Friday night. The Tigers averaged 43 points while winning their first three games, including an upset of UCLA at home, before getting pounded at Central Florida 40-13 on Saturday. Senior quarterback Riley Ferguson, who threw for six touchdowns against UCLA, needs to rebound after a three-interception performance and will face another gun-slinger in UConn’s Bryant Shirreffs. The senior has thrown for more than 400 yards in losses to East Carolina and SMU the last two games, but the Huskies have allowed 128 points in three consecutive losses after opening with a win over FCS member Holy Cross. UConn is allowing a nation-most 379.8 yards through the air. Both teams are near the bottom at stopping opponents on third down, with UConn slightly better at 45.2% to Memphis’ 52.1%. Memphis cruised to a 41-10 home victory in the last meeting in 2014, but the Tigers lost at Connecticut 45-10 in the first-ever matchup one year earlier.

LIVE IN-GAME BETTING

The Tigers have been hit by the injury bug, especially on the defensive side of the ball, and it showed last week against UCF when they gave up 603 total yards and 350 on the ground. Ferguson is 198 passing yards short of 5,000 in less than two seasons at Memphis, but could use some more from his rushing attack led by sophomore Darrell Henderson, who is averaging 8.9 yards per carry and ran for 105 of his 393 yards against UCLA. WR Phil Mayhue has caught at least one pass in 32 straight games – second in school history – and teammate WR Anthony Miller’s streak is at 29. Memphis will host first place Navy next week from the West Division of the AAC.

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The Huskies are averaging almost 28 points a game as Shirreffs boasts eight touchdown passes and just two interceptions while completing 68.9% of his passes. Running back Nate Hopkins rushed for 130 yards and three scores in the opener, but is averaging just 31 in his last three games, while fellow freshman Kevin Mensah ran for 107 yards against East Carolina. Senior running back Arkeel Newsome has been Shirreffs’ top target with 15 catches and 311 receiving yards, but junior wide receiver Aaron McLean caught five passes for 122 yards against SMU on Saturday – both career highs. Connecticut’s 37.0 points allowed per game is 117th out of 130 FBS teams.

TOP 25 FREE PICKS – WEEK 6

This total is set at 70 and could be even higher as both defenses are atrocious. In a game like this, where it’s going to be hard to stop the offense, I like to take the points when the line is set so high. Memphis should win this game, but UConn will keep it close.

Pick: Connecticut +14

TRENDS:

• Tigers are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• Tigers are 5-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
• Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
• Tigers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.
• Tigers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.
• Tigers are 15-32-4 ATS in their last 51 games in October.
• Tigers are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
• Tigers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.
• Tigers are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
• Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Tigers are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games on grass.

• Huskies are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games in October.
• Huskies are 8-21-2 ATS in their last 31 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Huskies are 14-37-1 ATS in their last 52 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
• Huskies are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 conference games.
• Huskies are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games on grass.
• Huskies are 14-39-1 ATS in their last 54 games overall.
• Huskies are 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Huskies are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 home games.
• Huskies are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS loss.
• Huskies are 7-24-1 ATS in their last 32 games following a straight up loss.
• Huskies are 11-38-2 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
• Huskies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.
• Huskies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
• Huskies are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Huskies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

• Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
• Over is 6-1 in Tigers last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
• Over is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 games overall.
• Under is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
• Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 games in October.
• Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
• Under is 5-2 in Tigers last 7 games following a straight up loss.
• Under is 12-5 in Tigers last 17 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Over is 7-3 in Tigers last 10 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
• Under is 9-4 in Tigers last 13 games on grass.
• Over is 13-6 in Tigers last 19 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

• Over is 4-0 in Huskies last 4 games following a ATS loss.
• Under is 5-0 in Huskies last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Under is 6-1 in Huskies last 7 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Under is 5-1 in Huskies last 6 games in October.
• Under is 14-3 in Huskies last 17 Friday games.
• Under is 13-3 in Huskies last 16 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1 in Huskies last 5 games overall.
• Over is 4-1 in Huskies last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
• Under is 6-2 in Huskies last 8 home games.
• Under is 15-6 in Huskies last 21 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
• Under is 18-8 in Huskies last 26 games following a straight up loss.