Dallas (2-2) at Phoenix (2-2)
When: Tuesday, May 10th, 2022
Where: Footprint Center,
Time: 10:00 ET | TV: TNT
Opening Odds: Phoenix -5.5/213
Homecourt has held serve through the first four games of the Western Conference semifinals between the Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns. Dallas will try and buck that trend on Tuesday night when they visit Phoenix for Game 5 at Footprint Center. The Mavericks evened the series up with a 111-101 win on Sunday as 3-point home dogs despite scoring just 19 points in the third quarter. Dallas led 87-78 when Suns guard Chris Paul returned to the game with five fouls and 10:28 remaining. The lead was still eight when Paul fouled out 90 seconds later. After Phoenix cut the lead to six, the Mavericks went on an 8-0 run to go up 97-83 and that was all she wrote. Phoenix committed 17 turnovers that resulted in 23 Dallas points and the win assures the Mavericks of one more home game this series.
The two main factors in Dallas’ win on Sunday was the three-point shooting and the fact that Paul was in foul trouble the entire game. The Mavericks made 20-of-44 from beyond the arc, with Dorian Finney-Smith making a career-best 8-of-12. Including the regular season, the home team has won six of the seven meetings with Dallas holding a slight 4-3 ATS advantage. The Suns are 6-point favorites for Game 5 back home with a total pegged at 213. There are some trends that point to this game going over, which happened in the first two games in Phoenix. The Suns are 16-5 to the Over when playing a team with a winning record at home, while Dallas has played to the over in seven of their last nine road contests.
Dallas’ best chance to win in Phoenix is to continue containing Paul. The Mavericks have held the point guard to just 17 points in the last two games while also forcing him to commit a total of 9 turnovers to 11 assists. Paul only had 5 points in Game 4 while also committing 2 turnovers before fouling out. The Mavericks offense is finally clicking including surprising efforts from Finney-Smith and Jalen Brunson. Finney-Smith has knocked down 12 three-pointers on 52.2 percent shooting in the last two games, while Brunson has scored 46 points over the same span. Reggie Bullock is also having a solid postseason with 29 made three-pointers. The Mavs are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games overall.
Paul averaged 23.5 points and 3.5 turnovers in Games 1 and 2, but committed seven first-half turnovers in Game 3 and foul trouble in Game 4 helped Dallas tie the series. Phoenix averaged 125 points in the first two games, but shot less than 50 percent in Dallas. It didn’t matter to Devin Booker where the games were played, as he poured in 35 points on 10-of-22 shooting in Game 4 including 12-of-13 from the foul line. So far in the second round, Booker is averaging 26.5 points while also shooting 52.0 percent from beyond the arc. The Suns are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games at home.
I know the home team has dominated this series, but it doesn’t mean the road team can’t cover. In this case, the Mavericks are getting six points and they have the momentum right now. They are shooting lights-out and containing Paul. I’ll take the points.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free NBA Picks page for today.
Pick: Mavericks +6