Miami (2-5) at Philadelphia (2-4)
When: Saturday, April 7th 2018
Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Time: 6:05 ET | TV: FS Florida, NBCS Philadelphia Plus
Opening Odds: Philadelphia -160/8.5
The Philadelphia Phillies had a rough start to the 2018 on the road, dealing with a new manager who is not exactly making many friends right now. First-year skipper Gabe Kapler was booed during lineup introductions prior to the Phillies home opener on Thursday against the Miami Marlins. Maikel Franco broke out of his early season slump with a triple, a homer and four RBI in the Phillies 5-0 victory over the Marlins in the opener of their three-game set. Franco was 1-for-11 before Thursday’s performance and last year’s rookie phenom Rhys Hoskins has reached base in all six games while going 8-for-20 with a homer and three RBI for Philadelphia. After a day off, the two teams will get back at it again with Vince Velasquez trying to bounce back from a rough season debut when he takes the ball for the Phillies against Miami’s Dillon Peters, who was outstanding in his first start of the year. The Marlins played two of the major league’s best teams to start the season at home, going 2-4 against the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox, but managed just four hits in their first road game Thursday. Second baseman Starlin Castro (10-for-32, four RBIs) and third baseman Brian Anderson (9-for-28, homer, team-high six RBIs) have each hit safely in the first seven games for Miami. Anderson can tie Hanley Ramirez and Alejandro De Aza (eight) for the longest hitting streak to open a season by a Marlins rookie. Phillies’ shortstop and Rookie of the Year candidate J.P. Crawford is off to a slow start, going 1-for-19 with six strikeouts.
Pitchers: Marlins – Dillon Peters (1-0, 0.00 ERA) | Phillies – Vince Velasquez (0-1, 13.50)
Peters was terrific in his season debut against the Cubs on Sunday, allowing six hits over six scoreless innings in the 6-0 victory, walking just one and striking out two. Peters walked 19 in just 31.1 innings over six starts (1-2) last season and was 0-1 with a 9.88 ERA in three road outings during 2017. Odubel Herrera is 3-for-4 against Peters, who limited Philadelphia to two runs and nine hits with 12 strikeouts over 13 innings last season.
Velasquez surrendered seven runs (four earned) and nine hits over 2.2 innings in the 15-2 loss at Atlanta last week, extending his winless streak to 11 starts (0-6). Velasquez was 1-5 with a 6.10 ERA at home last season and gave up 10 of the 15 homers he surrendered overall at Citizens Bank Park. Cameron Maybin is 2-for-2 against Velasquez, who has had success against the Marlins while going 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA in six appearances.
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I don’t expect Peters to be as good against the Phillies after he shut down the struggling Cubs offense last week. Velasquez has not been good since a great start in Philadelphia two seasons ago. Velasquez is not good at home, and the Phillies bats should be good enough to get to Peters. I like the over here.
Pick: Over 8 -115
BETTING TRENDS:
- Marlins are 6-2 in their last 8 vs. National League East.
- Marlins are 5-2 in their last 7 during game 2 of a series.
- Marlins are 5-2 in their last 7 Saturday games.
- Marlins are 2-7 in their last 9 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Marlins are 2-7 in their last 9 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Marlins are 1-4 in their last 5 overall.
- Marlins are 1-4 in their last 5 games on grass.
- Marlins are 3-13 in their last 16 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Marlins are 3-14 in their last 17 road games.
- Marlins are 0-4 in their last 4 games following an off day.
- Marlins are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Phillies are 11-2 in their last 13 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 home games.
- Phillies are 11-23 in their last 34 during game 2 of a series.
- Phillies are 17-37 in their last 54 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Phillies are 5-11 in their last 16 games following an off day.
- Phillies are 5-13 in their last 18 Saturday games.
- Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
- Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Phillies are 1-5 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Phillies are 4-9 in Velasquez’s last 13 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Phillies are 2-5 in Velasquez’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Phillies are 7-19 in Velasquez’s last 26 starts.
- Phillies are 7-19 in Velasquez’s last 26 starts on grass.
- Phillies are 3-9 in Velasquez’s last 12 starts vs. National League East.
- Phillies are 3-10 in Velasquez’s last 13 home starts.
- Phillies are 2-7 in Velasquez’s last 9 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Phillies are 2-8 in Velasquez’s last 10 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Phillies are 1-5 in Velasquez’s last 6 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Phillies are 1-6 in Velasquez’s last 7 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Phillies are 1-8 in Velasquez’s last 9 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Phillies are 0-4 in Velasquez’s last 4 Saturday starts.
- Over is 6-0 in Marlins last 6 Saturday games.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 games following a loss.
- Over is 4-1 in Marlins last 5 games following an off day.
- Under is 4-1 in Marlins last 5 road games.
- Over is 20-7-2 in Marlins last 29 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 8-3-2 in Marlins last 13 vs. National League East.
- Over is 5-2-2 in Marlins last 9 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 5-2 in Marlins last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 12-5-2 in Marlins last 19 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 7-3-1 in Marlins last 11 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 35-16-6 in Marlins last 57 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 34-16-5 in Marlins last 55 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 37-18-2 in Marlins last 57 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
- Under is 6-0 in Phillies last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Phillies last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 8-2 in Phillies last 10 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 4-1-2 in Phillies last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Phillies last 5 overall.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Phillies last 5 on grass.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Phillies last 5 vs. National League East.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Phillies last 5 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Phillies last 8 Saturday games.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Phillies last 8 games following a win.
- Over is 35-17-5 in Phillies last 57 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 7-0 in Velasquez’s last 7 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0 in Velasquez’s last 6 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 7-1 in Velasquez’s last 8 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1 in Velasquez’s last 7 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Velasquez’s last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Velasquez’s last 5 starts with 6 days of rest.
- Over is 9-3 in Velasquez’s last 12 starts vs. National League East.
- Over is 8-3 in Velasquez’s last 11 home starts.
- Over is 15-6 in Velasquez’s last 21 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-2 in Velasquez’s last 7 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 15-6 in Velasquez’s last 21 starts overall.
- Marlins are 23-47 in the last 70 meetings in Philadelphia.
- Marlins are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings.
