Seattle (13-10) at Cleveland (13-9)
When: Thursday, April 26th 2018
Where: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Time: 6:10 ET | TV: ROOT Northwest, SportsTime Ohio
Opening Odds: Cleveland -130/8
After a slow start to the season, the Cleveland Indians are beginning to play like the defending American League Central champs and will look to keep that going when they entertain the Seattle Mariners in the opener of a four-game series on Thursday night. Cleveland started the season by dropping two of three in Seattle, but after last night’s 4-1 over the Chicago Cubs, they have won four of their last five and are the only team in the division with a winning record. Mike Clevinger will look to follow-up his career-best outing when he takes the mount Thursday. The right-hander allowed just two hits while recording his first career shutout in a 4-0 victory over the Baltimore Orioles last Saturday. Seattle left-hander James Paxton is not the same pitcher he was last season and was hit for five runs and six hits in four innings during a no-decision against the Texas Rangers in his last outing. Paxton’s season began with a loss to the Indians on March 31st when he surrendered a grand slam to Yonder Alonso and a two-run shot to Yan Gomes while giving up six runs in 4.2 innings. The Mariners defeated the Chicago White Sox 4-3 on Wednesday and have four of six since getting swept by the Houston Astros last week. Cleveland’s 29th ranked offense (.218 batting avg.) could get a boost soon with the signing of veteran OF Melky Cabrera to a $1 million contract plus incentives. He will work out at extended spring training in Arizona before beginning a short minor-league stint and eventually joining the Tribe.
Pitchers: Mariners – James Paxton (1-1, 5.61 ERA) | Indians – Mike Clevinger (2-0, 1.75)
Paxton had a stellar 2017, going 12-5 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 24 starts but his ERA has nearly doubled and his WHIP has jumped to 1.44. Paxton has already allowed four homers in 25.2 innings after giving up just nine in 136 last season. The Canadian is 0-3 with a 5.87 ERA in three career outings against the Indians and has struggled with Jason Kipnis (4-for-8) and Rajai Davis (5-for-13).
Clevinger (1.75 ERA) is leading a staff that has four starters with an ERA of 2.41 or better and is holding opposing batters to a .205 average this season to go along with a 1.10 WHIP. He needed 107 pitches to dominate an Orioles lineup last time out, but only struck out three batters and has 17 Ks this season in 25.2 innings. This will be Clevinger’s 36th career start and his first against the Mariners.
I was surprised when I saw this line (-105). I’m guessing the oddsmakers are giving Paxton another chance, but I’m not. The Indians’ offense is still struggling, but they’re winning games now thanks to the pitching, which ranks third in ERA (2.83) and first in WHIP (1.01). I’ll take the home team here in the opener.
Pick: Indians -105
BETTING TRENDS:
- Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. American League Central.
- Mariners are 6-2 in their last 8 road games.
- Mariners are 11-23 in their last 34 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Mariners are 7-20 in their last 27 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mariners are 2-7 in their last 9 Thursday games.
- Mariners are 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mariners are 9-2 in Paxton’s last 11 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Mariners are 7-2 in Paxton’s last 9 starts vs. American League Central.
- Mariners are 7-2 in Paxton’s last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mariners are 7-3 in Paxton’s last 10 road starts.
- Mariners are 1-10 in Paxton’s last 11 Thursday starts.
- Indians are 40-12 in their last 52 Thursday games.
- Indians are 25-8 in their last 33 during game 1 of a series.
- Indians are 46-15 in their last 61 games on grass.
- Indians are 39-13 in their last 52 home games.
- Indians are 47-16 in their last 63 overall.
- Indians are 28-12 in their last 40 vs. American League West.
- Indians are 9-4 in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Indians are 40-18 in their last 58 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Indians are 38-18 in their last 56 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Indians are 39-19 in their last 58 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Indians are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Indians are 9-1 in Clevinger’s last 10 starts on grass.
- Indians are 7-1 in Clevinger’s last 8 home starts.
- Indians are 6-1 in Clevinger’s last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Indians are 6-1 in Clevinger’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Indians are 13-3 in Clevinger’s last 16 starts.
- Indians are 4-1 in Clevinger’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 11-4 in Mariners last 15 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 21-8-1 in Mariners last 30 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 12-5 in Mariners last 17 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 7-3-2 in Mariners last 12 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 11-5-2 in Mariners last 18 road games.
- Under is 7-0 in Paxton’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-0 in Paxton’s last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-1-2 in Paxton’s last 10 road starts.
- Under is 5-1-2 in Paxton’s last 8 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Under is 5-1 in Paxton’s last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-1 in Paxton’s last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- Under is 5-2-2 in Paxton’s last 9 starts on grass.
- Under is 5-2-2 in Paxton’s last 9 starts overall.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Indians last 4 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Indians last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1 in Indians last 6 Thursday games.
- Under is 5-1 in Indians last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 7-2 in Indians last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 7-2 in Indians last 9 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 12-4 in Indians last 16 overall.
- Under is 10-4 in Indians last 14 on grass.
- Under is 19-8-1 in Indians last 28 home games.
- Under is 45-22-5 in Indians last 72 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Clevinger’s last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Clevinger’s last 6 home starts.
- Under is 6-2-1 in Clevinger’s last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-2 in Clevinger’s last 8 starts vs. American League West.
- Under is 22-8-1 in Clevinger’s last 31 starts overall.
- Under is 21-8-1 in Clevinger’s last 30 starts on grass.
- Under is 5-2 in Clevinger’s last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Cleveland.
- Under is 11-5-1 in the last 17 meetings.
