Louisiana State (9-3) vs Notre Dame (9-3)
When: Monday, January 1st 2018
Where: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
Time: 1:00 ET | TV: ABC
Opening Odds: LSU -1/49.5
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The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Louisiana State Tigers will start off the new calendar year with a date in the Citrus Bowl in Orlando, as both teams seek to end the season with 10 wins. It will be the first trip to the Citrus Bowl for Notre Dame, who will be playing in its 16th different Bowl game, while LSU is playing in Orlando for the second straight year and fifth overall. Both teams have run-first offenses and boast 1,000-yard rushers. Notre Dame’s Josh Adams finished the regular season with 1,386 yards and nine scores, but his per carry average has dropped from 8.9 over the first eight games to 3.7 over the final four. Derrius Guice (1,153 yards, 11 TDs) was leaned on heavily down the stretch, carrying the ball at least 19 times in each of the last six games, including 28 rushes for 127 yards in the regular season-ending 45-21 win over Texas A&M. Notre Dame’s defense is very opportunistic, forcing 17 turnovers through their first seven games but only three in their last five. They might have a tough time producing takeaways against an LSU team that committed only eight turnovers all season, half of which came in the upset loss to Troy on September 30th. Notre Dame holds a 6-5 edge in the all-time series, including a 31-28 win in the most recent meeting in the 2014 Music City Bowl.
The Irish boast the nation’s seventh-best rushing offense thanks to Adams and quarterback Brandon Wimbush, who has rushed for 765 yards and a team-high 14 touchdowns in 2017. Wimbush threw for 1,818 yards with 16 touchdowns and six interceptions, but four of those picks came in the last three games – two each in losses to Miami (Fla.) and Stanford. Wimbush won’t have his second-leading receiver to throw to in the Citrus Bowl, as Chase Claypool will be out with a shoulder injury. The defense was stout for much of the season but has allowed an average of 226.3 rushing yards over the last four games. Not a good sign when facing an LSU attack.
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The Tigers traditionally lean on the ground game and a solid defense and this year is no exception. LSU gives up just 311.7 total yards per game and is effective stopping both the run and the pass, ranking in the top 25 nationally in both categories. Guice makes the offense go, but you can’t ignore the efficient season quarterback Danny Etling has had. Etling has passed for 2,234 yards with 14 touchdowns and two interceptions and had a season-high 347 yards in the regular season finale against Texas A&M after an 81-yard effort the game before at Tennessee.
NCAA FOOTBALL ODDS – SCORES – PUBLIC PLAYS
Notre Dame’s defense was really exposed down the stretch and I can see LSU, who is not really an offensive juggernaut, taking advantage of that. The Irish will also find it hard to generate any offense against one of the best defenses in the country. I’ll lay the field goal.
Pick: LSU -3
TRENDS:
- Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
- Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Bowl games.
- Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
- Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in January.
- Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Tigers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
- Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Tigers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 games overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 non-conference games.
- Under is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-2 in Fighting Irish last 8 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 8-3 in Fighting Irish last 11 games on fieldturf.
- Over is 5-2 in Fighting Irish last 7 Bowl games.
- Over is 5-2 in Fighting Irish last 7 bowl games.
- Over is 11-5 in Fighting Irish last 16 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 4-0-2 in Tigers last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1-2 in Tigers last 9 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Under is 6-2-2 in Tigers last 10 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 8-3-1 in Tigers last 12 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2-1 in Tigers last 8 non-conference games.
- Under is 5-2 in Tigers last 7 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 19-8-2 in Tigers last 29 games overall.
- Under is 9-4-2 in Tigers last 15 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 13-6-1 in Tigers last 20 vs. a team with a winning record.
