LSU (24-5) at Florida (17-12)
When: Wednesday, March 6th, 2019
Where: Exactech Arena,
Gainesville, Florida
Time: 7:00 ET | TV: ESPN2
Opening Odds: Florida -1.5/136
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The Florida Gators didn’t do their NCAA Tournament hopes any favors last time out in losing to the Georgia Bulldogs, but they’re still in pretty good shape as the projected No. 9 seed come Selection Sunday. They can erase any doubts with a win in one of their final two regular season games beginning Wednesday with 10th-ranked LSU coming to Gainesville. Florida played themselves back into a tournament bid with a five-game winning streak that was snapped 61-55 by a Georgia team that came in with a nine-game losing skid. One of those victories during their winning streak came at LSU – an 82-77 overtime upset over the Tigers that snapped LSU’s four-game winning streak. Since then, the Tigers have won three straight including an 82-80 overtime win over Tennessee, and most recently, a 74-69 road win at Alabama. LSU is a half-game behind Tennessee atop the SEC standings and will bring an 8-0 conference road record into the O’Connell Center. LSU leads the series 63-47 but Florida is 4-1 in the four seasons under head coach Mike White.
LSU is seeking their first regular-season conference title in 10 years and are one of the highest scoring teams in the country at 81.8 points per game. All five starters scored in double-digits against Alabama, but the 24th-ranked free throw shooting squad had some problems at the line, just like they did in the earlier meeting with Florida. LSU hit just 14-of-22 against the Tide and 16-of-25 against Florida on Feb. 20. Turnovers also hurt the Tigers in the last meeting, as they committed 14 of them that turned into 21 Gator points. Skylar Mays, who is second on the team in scoring (13.7), led the way against Alabama with 18, while leading scorer Tremont Waters (15.3) chipped in 10 points. LSU will close the regular season Saturday at home versus Vanderbilt.
Florida only averages 68.3 points a game – 286th in the country – but posses one of the best defenses around, allowing 63.1 points per contest (16th). The offense ranks 286th in scoring (68.3) and struggled quite a bit against Georgia last time out, making just 37.5 percent from the floor and senior guard Jalen Hudson was the only Gator in double figures (13 points). Senior night will honor KeVaughn Allen (team-high 21 points), Hudson (15) and Kevarrius Hayes (10), who combined for 46 points in the first meeting with LSU. The Gators received big contributions this season from freshmen Andrew Nembhard, Keyontae Johnson and Noah Locke, who accounted for 37.9 percent of the team’s scoring. The Gators get another crack at a top 10 team on Saturday when they close out the regular season at Kentucky.
LSU has just been too good on the road, and this Florida team is very inconsistent and just can’t score enough. The Tigers took the Gators too lightly in the first meeting and won’t be caught doing that again.
Pick: LSU PK
Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Tigers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.
Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Tigers are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 vs. Southeastern.
Tigers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
Tigers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win.
Gators are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 Wednesday games.
Gators are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Gators are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Gators are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. Southeastern.
Gators are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
Gators are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games.
Gators are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Gators are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 6-1 in Tigers last 7 Wednesday games.
Over is 12-3 in Tigers last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 10-3 in Tigers last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 6-2 in Tigers last 8 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Over is 15-6 in Tigers last 21 games following a ATS win.
Over is 12-5 in Tigers last 17 overall.
Over is 37-17 in Tigers last 54 vs. Southeastern.
Under is 4-0 in Gators last 4 home games.
Under is 8-1 in Gators last 9 overall.
Under is 8-1 in Gators last 9 vs. Southeastern.
Under is 4-1 in Gators last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 22-7 in Gators last 29 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 6-2 in Gators last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 6-2 in Gators last 8 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.
Tigers are 1-3-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Tigers are 1-3-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Florida.
