LSU vs Mississippi State Spread, Trends, and Free Pick September 15th, 2011

The point spread for Thursday Night’s ESPN game between the LSU Tigers and Mississippi State Bulldogs opened up at -3 in favor of LSU at Bodog Sportsbook. The line has since been bet up to 3.5 as of Tuesday afternoon. The total opened up at 48.5 and has not moved. Right now, 67% of the betting public is on the Tigers. To help you better decide who to bet, take a look at these trends for tonight.

Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.

Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.

Bulldogs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Under is 9-3 in Tigers last 12 games following a S.U. win.

Under is 6-2 in Tigers last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Under is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 games as an underdog.

Under is 7-2 in Bulldogs last 9 conference games.

Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

Tigers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meetings.

My Prediction: LSU opens their SEC schedule against a Mississippi State team who lost their SEC opener last week at Auburn 41-34. The Bulldogs dominated the offense stats, but penalties and a pick-6 by Auburn really hurt. LSU opened the season with an impressive win over Oregon then won a gimmie game over Northwestern State. The Bulldogs haven’t beaten LSU since 1999, but have played them close in 2 of the last 3 years. LSU’s stingy run defense will try and stop a great Bulldog rushing attack. QB Chris Relf of Mississippi State will have to open up the passing game a bit to win this game. The home crowd will be a factor tonight and I believe the Bulldogs pull off the upset.

Mississippi State +3.5

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