Detroit (1-2) at Dallas (1-2)
When: Sunday, September 30th 2018
Where: AT&T Stadium,
Arlington, Texas
Time: 1:00 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Dallas -3.5/44
A pair of 1-2 teams that would love to get back to .500 meet on Sunday afternoon as the Detroit Lions visit the Dallas Cowboys from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Both had opposite results in Week 3 action with the Cowboys getting outplayed in Seattle, while the Lions got one of their biggest wins in years by beating Bill Belichick and the Patriots on Sunday night. The Cowboys boast one of the top defenses in the league, but its the offense that is having issues getting the ball rolling. Ezekiel Elliott is tied with San Francisco’s Matt Breida for the NFL lead with 274 rushing yards and has a 5.7-yard average but is carrying the ball just 16 times per game. Look for Dallas to establish the running game in this one against a Detroit defense that ranks dead last in the NFL against the run (149.3 yards). Dallas comes into this contest on a dismal 2-7 ATS run in its past nine home games against the NFC North, though one of those covers came in a 42-21 win over Detroit back in December of 2016. Meanwhile, the Lions have lost three straight games as a road underdog and were blownout in all three, allowing an average 42 points in those defeats. The Lions have gone over the total in seven of their previous nine games against NFC opponents, and are 5-2 on the over in their past seven road games. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have cashed the under in 11 of their last 12 games overall and the last six against the NFC as well.
Quarterback Matthew Stafford threw four interceptions in a blowout loss to the Jets in Week 1, but has bounced back to throw five touchdown passes against one pick in his last two games. Rookie Kerryon Johnson rushed for 101 yards against the Patriots to become the first Detroit running back to top 100 yards in a contest since Reggie Bush in 2013. Despite being 32nd against the run, as we mentioned, they are tops in the NFL against the pass and Eli Harold recorded two sacks against New England and shares the team lead of three with fellow linebacker Devon Kennard. The Lions will host the Green Bay Packers next week before heading into their bye.
Part of Dallas’ offensive woes involves quarterback Dak Prescott, who has just 498 passing yards – with two touchdowns and two interceptions – and his highest output of the season is only 170 yards. Those numbers have the Cowboys sitting 31st in passing offense, which puts more stress on Elliott to take over games. Dallas would be without veteran outside linebacker Sean Lee (hamstring) and rookie Leighton Vander Esch is being prepared to start against the Lions after posting 11 tackles in relief of Lee in last week’s loss at Seattle. The Cowboys will play at Houston on Sunday Night Football next week.
I’m not going to over-react to the Lions huge win over the Patriots last week. They are still not a very good football team and were outscored the first two weeks 78-44. Detroit can’t stop the run and I see Elliott getting a heavy workload in this one. I like the Cowboys to easily win this contest at home.
Pick: Cowboys -3
Betting Trends:
- Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC.
- Lions are 6-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 4.
- Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Lions are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Lions are 16-36-1 ATS in their last 53 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Lions are 11-27-2 ATS in their last 40 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Lions are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Lions are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
- Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cowboys are 3-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Cowboys are 12-25-1 ATS in their last 38 games on fieldturf.
- Cowboys are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 4.
- Under is 4-0 in Lions last 4 games in Week 4.
- Over is 5-1 in Lions last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Lions last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 7-2 in Lions last 9 vs. NFC.
- Over is 16-5 in Lions last 21 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 10-4 in Lions last 14 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-2 in Lions last 7 road games.
- Over is 5-2 in Lions last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 10-4 in Lions last 14 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
- Over is 5-2 in Lions last 7 games in September.
- Under is 10-4 in Lions last 14 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 35-15-3 in Lions last 53 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Over is 11-5-1 in Lions last 17 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games in September.
- Under is 5-0 in Cowboys last 5 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 6-0 in Cowboys last 6 vs. NFC.
- Under is 11-1 in Cowboys last 12 games overall.
- Over is 7-1 in Cowboys last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 home games.
- Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Cowboys last 7 games in Week 4.
- Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
- Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Dallas.
- Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
