Kentucky (7-5) vs Northwestern (9-3)
When: Friday, December 29th 2017
Where: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
Time: 4:30 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Northwestern -6/51
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Two teams going in opposite directions will battle in the 2017 Music City Bowl when the Kentucky Wildcats take on the Northwestern Wildcats in Nashville, Tennessee on December 29th. Kentucky became bowl-eligible with an October 28th victory over Tennessee, but went on to drop three of their final four games including back-to-back blowout losses to Georgia and Louisville to end the regular season. Northwestern has won seven consecutive games for the first time since the memorable Rose Bowl run in 1996, and has a chance to win 10 games for the second time in three seasons and post back-to-back postseason victories for the first time in program history. Kentucky has a shot to win eight games for the first time since 2007 and gather momentum into next season. Northwestern’s Justin Jackson will be appearing in his final game after setting a slew of school rushing records. Jackson became the first Big Ten player since Wisconsin’s Ron Dayne to rush for over 1,000 yards in four straight seasons after gaining 1,154 on the ground in 2017. Jackson ran for 144 yards and a touchdown in the 42-7 win against Illinois in the regular season finale to move past another Badger, Montee Ball (5,140), for fourth place on the Big Ten’s all-time rushing list and will go up against a Kentucky defense that allowed an average of 363.5 yards on the ground over its final two games. Kentucky is seeking their first postseason victory since a 25-19 victory against East Carolina in the 2008 Liberty Bowl.
Kentucky relies mainly on the run as well, led by sophomore sensation Benny Snell Jr. Snell, who has built upon a historic freshman campaign that saw him break the school record for most rushing yards by a first-year player (1,091). Snell recorded 18 touchdowns in 2017, including 12 over his final five games of the regular season. He ended the season with 1,318 rushing yards to become the first running back in Kentucky history to record back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. Snell, who was named to the All-SEC second team, rushed for 211 yards and two touchdowns in the 44-17 loss to Louisville to bring his career total to a school-record 31. Wide receiver Lynn Bowden Jr. was named to the freshman All-SEC Team as a kick returner after averaging 23.1 yards per return. The Kentucky defense has a hard time stopping the passing game, allowing 263.5 yards a contest – 113th in FBS.
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Quarterback Clayton Thorson threw for 140 yards and a touchdown in the win over Illinois in the regular-season finale to equal the program record for most touchdown passes (44) held by Len Williams and Brett Basanez. Jackson posted his 26th career 100-yard rushing game in the victory against the Fighting Illini to move past LaDainian Tomlinson (5,263) into 11th place on the NCAA’s all-time rushing list. Garrett Dickerson earned all-Big Ten honorable mention honors after catching a career-high 37 passes for 401 yards and four touchdowns. Northwestern’s defensive ranks were on opposite ends of the spectrum, ranking 10th against the run (111.2), but 100th against the pass (247.6).
NCAA FOOTBALL ODDS – SCORES – PUBLIC PLAYS
This is one of the tougher Bowl games for me to pick. Northwestern is obviously the better squad, but Kentucky has been competitive in most games up until the end of the season. I’m going to take the hot team in this one and lay the points.
Pick: Northwestern -7.5
TRENDS:
- Wildcats are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games on grass.
- Wildcats are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
- Wildcats are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
- Wildcats are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 Bowl games.
- Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
- Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
- Wildcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
- Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
- Wildcats are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
- Wildcats are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
- Wildcats are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
- Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
- Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
- Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Wildcats are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Wildcats are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall.
- Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Wildcats are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 bowl games.
- Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Bowl games.
- Over is 4-0 in Wildcats last 4 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Wildcats last 5 non-conference games.
- Over is 6-1 in Wildcats last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Wildcats last 6 neutral site games.
- Under is 5-1 in Wildcats last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 games overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 games in December.
- Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Over is 7-2 in Wildcats last 9 games following a double-digit loss at home.
- Over is 8-3 in Wildcats last 11 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Wildcats last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 7-3 in Wildcats last 10 games following a straight up loss.
- Over is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 Friday games.
- Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 games in December.
- Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 neutral site games.
- Under is 21-6-1 in Wildcats last 28 non-conference games.
- Under is 9-3-1 in Wildcats last 13 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 14-5 in Wildcats last 19 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Under is 17-7 in Wildcats last 24 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 40-17-1 in Wildcats last 58 games on grass.
- Under is 11-5 in Wildcats last 16 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 17-8-1 in Wildcats last 26 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 39-19-1 in Wildcats last 59 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
