Jacksonville (12-6) at New England (14-3)
When: Sunday, January 21st 2018
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Time: 3:05 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: New England -9.5/46
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The remarkable New England Patriots are playing in their seventh consecutive AFC Championship Game and are heavy favorites against the upstart Jacksonville Jaguars this Sunday in Foxborough. The Patriots earned the top seed in the conference thanks mainly to their Week 15 victory at Pittsburgh, and fortunately won’t have to face the Steelers again like many predicted, because the Jaguars took care of them last weekend at Heinz Field. Jacksonville went from worst-to-first in the AFC South this season and boast one of the most feared defenses in the league. The third-seeded Jaguars are playing with nothing to lose, with star cornerback Jalen Ramsey predicting a victory over the Patriots in the wake of last week’s 45-42 win at No. 2 seed Pittsburgh. Jacksonville led the NFL with seven defensive TDs during the regular season and added another score last week after holding the Buffalo Bills to three points in the Wild Card round. The Patriots breezed by the upset-minded Tennessee Titans 35-14 last week after trailing 7-0. Quarterback Tom Brady, who threw for 337 yards and three scores against the Titans, sat out practice on Thursday with an injured right hand, but there’s no indication he’s not 100%. Brady can became the first QB in history with four straight playoff games of least 300 yards passing and multiple TDs. The Patriots are 6-1 in AFC title games at home and have won 10 of their 11 all-time meetings with Jacksonville.
Jacksonville boasts the league’s top-ranked rushing attack led by Rookie of the Year-candidate Leonard Fournette, who ran for 109 yards and three touchdowns last week but also limped back to the sidelines during the game and was limited in practice Wednesday and Thursday. Blake Bortles completed just 53.1% of his passes in the two playoff wins, but he has not committed a turnover after tossing five interceptions in the final two regular-season games. Bortles looked terrible in the win over Buffalo, but was efficient in last week’s win over Pittsburgh. The Jaguars will try to slow the NFL’s top offense with a defense that surrenders a league-low 169.9 yards passing while ranking second in sacks (55) and interceptions (21). Ramsey and cornerback A.J. Bouye combined for 10 of those interceptions while defensive ends Calais Campbell (14.5) and Yannick Ngakoue (12) accounted for nearly half of the team’s sacks.
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Brady owns the most postseason wins (26) in history and has passed for 300 yards or more 13 times, while surpassing Joe Montana with his 10th three-touchdown performance. Brady hasn’t missed a game due to injury since 2008, but I’m not expecting journeyman Brian Hoyer to step in as the Patriots aren’t the most trust-worthy team regarding the injury report. Brady completed at least three passes to five different receivers in last week’s rout of Tennessee. Dion Lewis has rushed for at least 60 yards in seven of his last eight games and added a season-high nine catches last week while tight end Rob Gronkowski has 34 receptions and four touchdowns over his last four games. New England ranks 30th against the pass (251.2), 20th against the run (114.8), but remarkably only allow 18.5 points per game.
NFL Conference Championships Betting Trends You Need to Know
The Jaguars defense may give Brady some trouble early, but he and head coach Bill Belichick will find a way around it by the second half. The Jaguars just don’t have enough offense to keep up with New England. I know everyone hates the Patriots, but it is better that they go to the Super Bowl than Jacksonville.
ENTER SKYBOOK’S SUPER BOWL CONTEST
Pick: Patriots -7.5
- Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Jaguars are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 vs. AFC.
- Jaguars are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff road games.
- Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games.
- Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in January.
- Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
- Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff home games.
- Patriots are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Patriots are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
- Patriots are 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Patriots are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win.
- Patriots are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Patriots are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Patriots are 20-8-3 ATS in their last 31 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Patriots are 27-11-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Patriots are 36-15-2 ATS in their last 53 home games.
- Patriots are 36-15-2 ATS in their last 53 games overall.
- Patriots are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 games following a straight up win.
- Patriots are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 vs. AFC.
- Patriots are 80-38-2 ATS in their last 120 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Patriots are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Conference Championships games.
- Over is 5-0 in Jaguars last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 5-1 in Jaguars last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Jaguars last 6 playoff road games.
- Under is 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 games in January.
- Under is 8-2 in Jaguars last 10 vs. AFC.
- Over is 10-3 in Jaguars last 13 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 8-3 in Jaguars last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Jaguars last 8 playoff games.
- Over is 10-4 in Jaguars last 14 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 playoff games.
- Over is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games in January.
- Over is 7-0 in Patriots last 7 playoff home games.
- Under is 6-2 in Patriots last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 8-3 in Patriots last 11 home games.
- Under is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 Conference Championships games.
- Under is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
- Under is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 12-5 in Patriots last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 48-21 in Patriots last 69 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Under is 9-4 in Patriots last 13 games overall.
- Over is 9-4 in Patriots last 13 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 67-32 in Patriots last 99 games on fieldturf.
- Over is 25-12 in Patriots last 37 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
- Jaguars are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
- Jaguars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in New England.
