Iowa State (7-5) vs Memphis (10-2)
When: Saturday, December 30th 2017
Where: Liberty Bowl, Memphis, TN
Time: 12:30 ET | TV: ABC
Opening Odds: Memphis -3/66.5
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The Iowa State Cyclones and Memphis Tigers were both able to hang-on to their successful coaches after the end of the regular season and can now focus on the Liberty Bowl coming up on December 30th. Memphis won the American Athletic Conference West division and came up just short in the title game in a thrilling 62-55 setback to undefeated UCF, and missed out on a chance to go to a New Year’s Six bowl. The Tigers will instead stay home for their clash with Iowa State, but it will be at the Liberty Bowl and not on campus. The Cyclones recorded a couple of huge wins this season over Oklahoma and TCU but stumbled down the stretch with losses in three of their last four by a combined 12 points. Memphis head coach Mike Norvell quieted any rumors of moving on by inking a five-year extension after the regular season. The Tigers did lose their offensive coordinator Darrell Dickey to the same position at Texas A&M. Dickey guided a Memphis offense this season that finished second in FBS in scoring average at 47.7 points – behind only UCF – while racking up an average of 548 yards per contest. Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell, who was named the Big 12 Coach of the Year, signed a six-year extension worth a reported $3.5 million annually. The Cyclones’ strength is their defense and will challenge the high-scoring Tigers with a unit that limited eight of its last 10 opponents to 20 or fewer points. Iowa State finished the season 29th in FBS in scoring defense while surrendering an average of 21 points.
The offense, which ranks 75th overall, is led by sophomore running back David Montgomery, who finished the regular season with 1,094 yards and 11 touchdowns. Montgomery suffered a leg injury in the regular-season finale against Kansas State while being limited to 14 yards on four carries, but should be ready to go on Saturday. Montgomery will take some of the pressure off quarterback Kyle Kempt, who missed a win over Baylor on November 18th with a shoulder injury but came back in time for the regular season finale and threw a pair of TD passes as Iowa State came up just short in a 20-19 loss at Kansas State.
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Tigers’ quarterback Riley Ferguson ended the regular season as one of the most prolific passers in the nation with 3,971 yards passing and 36 TDs, and had a big game in the AAC Championship by throwing for 471 yards and four scores. Ferguson’s favorite target is fellow senior Anthony Miller, who caught 92 passes for 1,407 yards and 17 TDs – the second-most yards and TD catches in FBS. Miller became Memphis’ third consensus All-American and heads into his final college game with 36 career TDs and 3,535 career yards. Memphis’ defense has been horrendous this season, ranking 121st overall, 122nd against the pass, and 99th against the run.
NCAA FOOTBALL ODDS – SCORES – PUBLIC PLAYS
I have to take the points and the Power 5 team in this one. Memphis has a terrific offense, but they have a new offensive coordinator and the Iowa State defense is pretty good. The Cyclones should be able to generate enough offense against this Tigers defense to keep it close.
Pick: Iowa State +4
TRENDS:
- Cyclones are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
- Cyclones are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Cyclones are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
- Cyclones are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
- Cyclones are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
- Cyclones are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
- Cyclones are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Cyclones are 10-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cyclones are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall.
- Cyclones are 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Cyclones are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Tigers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.
- Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Tigers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Tigers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
- Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Tigers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Tigers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Tigers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Tigers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.
- Tigers are 4-10-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
- Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
- Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Bowl games.
- Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in December.
- Tigers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Tigers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 4-0 in Cyclones last 4 road games.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Cyclones last 5 Bowl games.
- Under is 4-0 in Cyclones last 4 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 8-0 in Cyclones last 8 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Cyclones last 5 bowl games.
- Under is 6-1 in Cyclones last 7 games overall.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Cyclones last 7 games in December.
- Over is 5-1 in Cyclones last 6 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Cyclones last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 4-1 in Cyclones last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 22-8 in Cyclones last 30 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 non-conference games.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 games overall.
- Over is 10-2 in Tigers last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 8-2 in Tigers last 10 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 games in December.
- Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 7-2 in Tigers last 9 games on fieldturf.
- Over is 19-7 in Tigers last 26 home games.
- Over is 18-7-1 in Tigers last 26 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Tigers last 7 Bowl games.
- Over is 5-2 in Tigers last 7 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Tigers last 7 bowl games.
