Cleveland (73-56) at NY Yankees (70-59)
When: Monday, August 28th 2017
Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Time: 7:05 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: New York -115/7.5
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The New York Yankees’ offense exploded this weekend to inch closer to the Boston Red Sox in the AL East, but will have their hands full with a Cleveland Indians pitching staff that is coming off three consecutive shutouts. New York’s huge seven-game stretch this week starts with the first place Indians and concludes with a four-game set with Boston this weekend. The Yankees took two of three from the Seattle Mariners over the weekend to pull within 2.5 games of the struggling Red Sox. They scored 16 runs in wins on Saturday and Sunday, but will go up against Cleveland ace Corey Kluber on Monday while the Yankees counter with their ace Luis Severino. Starlin Castro went 4-for-4 on Sunday and is 6-for-12 in three games since coming off the disabled list for New York. On the other end, third baseman Todd Frazier is a dismal 0-for-14 with eight strikeouts over his last five games. Cleveland might have put away the AL Central with their dominating weekend against the Royals. They now hold a 6.5-game lead over the Minnesota Twins. The Tribe scored all 12 of their runs on Sunday in the first two innings. Shortstop Francisco Lindor is 8-for-15 with three homers and six RBIs in the last four games.
Pitchers: Indians – Corey Kluber (12-4, 2.65 ERA) | Yankees – Luis Severino (11-5, 3.10)
Kluber suffered his first loss in eight games last Wednesday when the Indians failed to give the ace run support in the 6-1 loss. Despite the setback, Kluber was still dominant, striking out 12 and allowing just two runs on four hits over 7.2 innings. Kluber has recorded at least 11 strikeouts in six of his last eight outings and allowed more than three runs just once in his last 16 trips to the mound. He was terrific against New York on August 3rd, striking out 11 and yielding just one run and three hits in a complete-game victory.
Severino was also terrific in his last outing, earning the win over Detroit last Wednesday when he let up just a run and six hits in 6.2 innings of work. He has now allowed one or zero earned runs in seven of his last eight starts. Severino was tagged for eight earned runs in 4.1 innings against Boston on August 12th, but will get a chance to better that later this weekend against the Sox. Severino earned a win at Cleveland on August 6th, striking out nine and allowing one run and two hits in 6.2 innings.
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This could be a preview of a playoff series come October as both teams are starting to play well now. This is a terrific pitching matchup and will have the feel of a postseason game. That said, I expect dominant efforts from both hurlers and I’ll take a shot at the under in this one.
Pick: Under -7.5 -125
BETTING TRENDS:
- Indians are 7-0 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Indians are 7-1 in their last 8 Monday games.
- Indians are 11-2 in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Indians are 13-3 in their last 16 during game 1 of a series.
- Indians are 8-2 in their last 10 road games.
- Indians are 8-2 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Indians are 6-2 in their last 8 vs. American League East.
- Indians are 12-4 in their last 16 overall.
- Indians are 9-4 in their last 13 games on grass.
- Indians are 13-3 in Kluber’s last 16 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Indians are 4-1 in Kluber’s last 5 road starts.
- Indians are 8-2 in Kluber’s last 10 starts vs. American League East.
- Indians are 4-1 in Kluber’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Indians are 21-8 in Kluber’s last 29 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Indians are 36-16 in Kluber’s last 52 starts.
- Indians are 36-16 in Kluber’s last 52 starts on grass.
- Indians are 3-9 in Kluber’s last 12 Monday starts.
- Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 Monday games.
- Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. American League Central.
- Yankees are 8-3 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Yankees are 8-3 in their last 11 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Yankees are 12-5 in their last 17 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Yankees are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 2-0-3 in Indians last 5 Monday games.
- Under is 6-1-2 in Indians last 9 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 19-7-3 in Indians last 29 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 8-3-1 in Indians last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-2-2 in Indians last 9 vs. American League East.
- Under is 12-5-2 in Indians last 19 overall.
- Under is 7-3-1 in Indians last 11 road games.
- Under is 38-17-7 in Indians last 62 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 5-0 in Kluber’s last 5 Monday starts.
- Under is 7-1-1 in Kluber’s last 9 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Under is 9-2 in Kluber’s last 11 starts vs. American League East.
- Under is 4-1 in Kluber’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Kluber’s last 5 road starts.
- Under is 4-1 in Kluber’s last 5 starts overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 home games.
- Under is 7-2 in Yankees last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 15-5-2 in Yankees last 22 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-2-1 in Yankees last 8 Monday games.
- Under is 5-2-1 in Yankees last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Indians are 4-0 in Kluber’s last 4 starts vs. Yankees.
- Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings.
- Indians are 16-38 in the last 54 meetings in New York.
