Miami (0-0) at New York (0-0)
When: Sunday, April 30th 2023
Where: Madison Square Garden,
New York, NY
Time: 1:00 ET | TV: ABC
Opening Odds: New York -4.5/206.5
Two very surprising teams will meet in the second round of the playoffs on Sunday afternoon, as the Miami Heat visit Madison Square Garden to take on the New York Knicks. Both teams were underdogs in their first round matchups, especially the Heat. Miami got the 8-seed and had to play the Milwaukee Bucks. Well, no problem there. Miami, on Jimmy Butler’s back, won the series in five games thanks to a couple of huge comebacks – or Milwaukee’s collapses.
In the series clincher, Butler hit a game-tying basket while falling to his back with 0.5 seconds remaining in regulation after the team trailed by 16 points. Miami got the job done in overtime for the shocking 128-126 victory as 13-point underdogs. Butler scored 56 points in Game 4 when Miami won 119-115 as 7-point home dogs. The Heat, who were one of the worst 3-point shooting teams during the regular season, shot 45.0 percent from beyond the arc despite losing Tyler Herro to a right hand injury in Game 1.
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The Knicks are in the second round for the first time since 2013 and before that, it was 2000 when they beat the Heat in seven games. New York split the first two games against the favored Cavaliers, but won the last three, including, including Wednesday’s 106-95 clincher. The Knicks are 4.5-point favorites on Sunday with a total of 207.5.
New York took three of the four meetings during the regular season and all of them were played from Feb. 2 on. None was decided by more than nine points and two were won by only two points. The Knicks won both home games, while taking one in Miami. Including the Play-In games, Miami is 5-2 ATS this postseason, while New York is 4-1.
Butler has been amazing thus far, leading the NBA with 37.6 points per game, and a lot of those points have been coming in the critical fourth quarters. Butler poured in 42 in the clinching game on Wednesday.
Miami went through most of the series without either Herro or Victor Oladipo, meaning Butler had to carry the heavy scoring load. Bam Adebayo averaged 17.4 points, then Gabe Vincent at 13.0. Duncan Robinson has made 14-of-19 attempts (73.7 percent) from beyond the arc, while Butler is 12-of-27 (44.4 percent).
Jalen Brunson scored 23 points and RJ Barrett added 21 in the series-clinching win over Cleveland last week. Brunson is averaging 24.0 points and Barrett 17.4 thus far. That has helped offset the limited production of Julius Randle (14.4 points, 6.4 rebounds), who has not fully recovered from a sprained left ankle.
Randle sprained his left ankle March 29 against Miami and missed the final five games of the regular season. On Wednesday, he sprained the ankle again and is listed as day-to-day. The Knicks have played great defense, limiting Cleveland to less than 100 points in all four wins and now they get a Miami team who was the lowest-scoring during the regular season.
This should be a very exciting – and long series. I think both teams are evenly matched and every game could go down to the last minute. I will take the Heat and the points in Game 1. Butler has just been unbelievable no matter how many points the Heat are down. Beating Milwaukee in five games was very impressive.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free NBA Picks page for today.
Pick: Heat +4.5
