Miami (2-0) at Atlanta (0-2)
When: Friday, April 22nd, 2022
Where: State Farm Arena,
Atlanta, GA
Time: 7:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Miami -3/220
The Miami Heat held homecourt just fine in the first two games of their first round series with the Atlanta Hawks, but now the series shifts to State Farm Arena. The Hawks hope to continue their strong play at home when they host Game 3 on Friday night, down 2-0 in the series. Miami won and covered the spread easily in the first two games including a 115-105 in Tuesday’s Game 2. The Heat are just 32-38 ATS on the season, but are 40-18 straight-up in their last 58 contests. The spread for this game is close to a Pickem. Miami is a 1-point favorite with a total of 221.5 in Game 3. Atlanta has won 20 of their last 23 homes games and they’ll need to continue that trend in the next two games or the series is over.
NBA teams that take a 2-0 lead in a best-of-seven series, eventually win that series 92.9 percent of the time. The stat is 100 percent when you take these two teams into consideration. Atlanta has been down 0-2 26 times in their history and have lost every single one. On the flip side, Miami has won all 17 series its played when taking a 2-0 lead. The Heat are 5-1 against the Hawks this season including this series and 5-1 ATS. Miami has kept Atlanta’s best player in check over the first two games, holding Trae Young to just 16.5 points and 5.5 assists. During the regular season, Young averaged 28.4 and 9.7. They also forced him to commit a career-worst 10 turnovers in Game 2.
Miami has a great mix of experience and young talent and it’s showing in this series. Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry are providing the veteran leadership a playoff team needs and the youngsters are thriving. Duncan Robinson had 27 points in Game 1, Tyler Herro had 15 in Game 2, while Gabe Vincent has 19 points through two games. Butler poured in 45 points in Game 2 and hit 15-of-25 shot attempts from the field. In the series, Butler is averaging 33.0 points, 5.5 rebounds and 4.5 assists – way up from his 21.4 average during the regular season. The Heat forced 19 turnovers in Game 2 and turned them into 21 points.
The Hawks need Young to start hitting this 3-pointers. The star guard is just 2-for-17 in the series from beyond the arc and the team is hitting below 30 percent overall from beyond the arc. So far, Young, De’Andre Hunter, Kevin Huerter and Danilo Gallinari have started both of Atlanta’s playoff games. Coach Nate McMillan started Onyeka Okongwu in Game 1 and John Collins in Game 2 for the fifth man. Collins responded with 13 points and 10 boards. Lowry had 10 points and nine assists in Game 1 and nine points and just two assists in Game 2.
The public is all over Miami in this one and I can’t blame them. However, Atlanta is still a good team and I don’t expect Young to stay cold for long, especially at home. The Hawks are desperate and I believe they can get back in this series.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free NBA Picks page for today.
Pick: Hawks +1
