Georgia (12-1) vs Oklahoma (12-1)
When: Monday, January 1st 2018
Where: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
Time: 5:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Oklahoma -3/60
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The first national semifinal game on New Year’s Day is truly offense versus defense as the high-flying Oklahoma Sooners take on the stingy Georgia Bulldogs in the Rose Bowl in Pasadena. The winner will play in the National Championship on January 8th against either Clemson or Alabama. Oklahoma boast the nation’s fourth-best scoring offense, while the Bulldogs have the fourth-best defense in the country. Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield threw for 4,340 yards and 41 touchdowns this season to help the Sooners average 44.9 points per game, but Georgia has held opponents to just 158.3 yards passing per contest while giving up just 13.2 points a game. Georgia has not faced a passing attack the caliber of Oklahoma’s, but the Sooners’ offense has not lined up against a defense like the Bulldogs either. Which unit will break first? The Bulldogs are seeking their first national championship since the 1980 season, and boast a terrific running back duo in Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. Chubb is second on the SEC’s all-time rushing list and has 1,175 yards on the ground this season while Michel is 52 yards away from 1,000. Having two strong running backs has taken the pressure off freshman quarterback Jake Fromm, who has been very efficient since taking over for the injured Jacob Eason on opening day. Both teams have young coaches who were terrific coordinators before landing their respective head jobs. Bob Stoops suddenly stepped down at Oklahoma over the summer, but 34-year-old offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley has not missed a beat. Kirby Smart returned to his alma mater in 2016 after directing defenses on multiple national championship teams at Alabama, and followed up last year’s eight-win campaign with the Bulldogs first SEC championship since 2005.
Fromm ranks second in the SEC in passing efficiency and third with 21 passing touchdowns and has thrown just five interceptions in 230 pass attempts. Chubb and Michel lead the charge for Georgia, but freshman D’Andre Swift rushed for 597 yards including a team-high 88 and a touchdown in the SEC title game victory over Auburn. The Bulldogs defense, which is led by linebacker and Butkus Award winner Roquan Smith, held opponents to 14 points or fewer 10 times, and ranks eighth in the country in defensive pass efficiency.
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The Sooners were relieved to hear that running back Rodney Anderson, who gained a team-best 960 yards this season, had no charges filed following a rape accusation and will make the trip to Pasadena. Mayfield’s top targets are tight end Mark Andrews, the Mackey Award winner who has eight touchdown receptions, and receiver Marquise Brown, who is 19 yards shy of 1,000 for the season. The Sooners defense allowed 144.2 yards a game on the ground (40th) and gave up 20 or fewer points three times in their last four games – twice against TCU.
NCAA FOOTBALL ODDS – SCORES – PUBLIC PLAYS
Both of these playoff games are really tough to predict, but defense usually wins out over offense, especially when its as good as Georgia’s. There are reports that Mayfield has been battling an illness, but that could be some gamesmanship on the part of Oklahoma. Healthy or not, Mayfield will have some problems generating offense against the Bulldogs, thus giving Georgia great field position. I have to stick with the SEC over the Big 12 in this one.
Pick: Georgia -2.5
TRENDS:
- Bulldogs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
- Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
- Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
- Bulldogs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Bulldogs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Bulldogs are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
- Sooners are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
- Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. SEC.
- Sooners are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Sooners are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
- Sooners are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Sooners are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
- Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Sooners are 17-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Sooners are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
- Sooners are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Sooners are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Sooners are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games.
- Under is 4-0 in Bulldogs last 4 non-conference games.
- Under is 21-5 in Bulldogs last 26 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 17-5 in Bulldogs last 22 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 10-3 in Bulldogs last 13 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Under is 16-5 in Bulldogs last 21 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 6-2 in Bulldogs last 8 neutral site games.
- Under is 20-7 in Bulldogs last 27 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 13-5 in Bulldogs last 18 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 20-8 in Bulldogs last 28 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 5-2 in Bulldogs last 7 vs. Big 12.
- Under is 19-8 in Bulldogs last 27 games on grass.
- Under is 7-3 in Bulldogs last 10 bowl games.
- Under is 7-1 in Sooners last 8 vs. SEC.
- Under is 7-1 in Sooners last 8 neutral site games.
- Under is 5-1 in Sooners last 6 bowl games.
- Over is 9-2 in Sooners last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 7-2 in Sooners last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 12-4 in Sooners last 16 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 7-3 in Sooners last 10 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
