Georgia (6-1) vs Florida (7-1)
When: Saturday, November 2nd 2019
Where: TIAA Bank Field,
Jacksonville, FL
Time: 3:30 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: Georgia -4.5/47.5
For the second year in a row, the Georgia Bulldogs and Florida Gators will meet as top 10 teams in a game that could very well determine who goes to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game in December. Both have just one loss in the SEC East, but it’s Florida who has a little easier schedule the rest of the way, with Georgia still having to play at Auburn. The Gators rebounded from their only loss on October 12th at LSU (42-28) with a 38-27 at South Carolina and will play three of their final four games in the state of Florida. The Gators offense has been a nice surprise this season, averaging 419.6 total yards while scoring 32.5 points through the first eight games, while the defense continues to be solid. Georgia is highly ranked in both offensive and defensive scoring and earned their second shutout of the season two weeks ago with a 21-0 home win over Kentucky. The Bulldogs have been double-digit favorites in every game this season, but have managed to only cover two of those and are 6.5-point favorites at offshore sportsbooks this week in Jacksonville. Georgia has taken the past two meetings with Florida, including a 36-17 victory last season, breaking a streak of three straight Gator blowouts.
The Bulldogs are the only team in the SEC to allow less than 100 points (74) and rank fifth nationally at 10.6 points per game allowed. They are seventh in the country in total defense at 266.7 yards per contest, but the offense has sputtered a bit in recent weeks despite ranking 21st overall at 472.9 yards a game. Junior running back D’Andre Swift leads the 15th-ranked rushing attack with 107.7 yards per game and has 752 yards with seven touchdowns on the season after rumbling for 179 yards and two touchdowns against Kentucky. Junior quarterback Jake Fromm only passed 12 times for 35 yards against Kentucky and threw three interceptions the week before versus South Carolina. Georgia will host Missouri next weekend.
Florida’s offense is cruising along and is one of three FBS schools (Eastern Michigan, Washington State) to have four players with at least 275 receiving yards, at least 20 receptions and at least two touchdowns. Tight end Kyle Pitts leads the way with 35 receptions for 391 yards and four scores. Junior quarterback Kyle Trask has passed for 1,351 yards and 13 touchdowns since taking over for the injured Felipe Franks while completing 67.1 percent of his passes. The rushing attack is ranked just 90th in FBS at 142.8 yards a game. Lineback Jon Greenard is tied for ninth in the SEC with four sacks and has 6.5 tackles for loss in leading the 12th-ranked defense in points allowed (15.8). Florida will host Vanderbilt next Saturday in Gainesville.
I expect a tight game here, as I haven’t been overly impressed with Georgia this year. Dan Mullen always gets his Gators up for big games and has been an underdog six times, winning four outright. I’ll take the points.
Pick: Florida +6.5 (More Week 10 Free Picks)
Betting Trends:
Bulldogs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games.
Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
Bulldogs are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 11-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bulldogs are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Gators are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
Gators are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win.
Gators are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.
Gators are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a bye week.
Gators are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games in November.
Gators are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
Under is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 games on grass.
Under is 4-1-1 in Bulldogs last 6 conference games.
Under is 3-1-1 in Bulldogs last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Under is 3-1-1 in Bulldogs last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 3-1-1 in Bulldogs last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 5-2-1 in Bulldogs last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Bulldogs last 7 games in November.
Over is 7-1-1 in Gators last 9 games following a ATS win.
Over is 4-1 in Gators last 5 games in November.
Over is 3-1-1 in Gators last 5 neutral site games.
Under is 19-7 in Gators last 26 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Under is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings.
