Florida State (17-2) at Virginia (13-6)
When: Tuesday, January 28th, 2020
Where: John Paul Jones Arena,
Charlottesville, VA
Time: 7:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Virginia -1.5/115.5
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The Virginia Cavaliers are the defending national champions, using strong defense and timely shooting to take home the title last April. While the defense is still as strong as ever, the offense could be keeping this team out of this year’s tournament. The Cavaliers could use a few more marquee wins for their resume and they have a big chance on Tuesday night when they host fifth-ranked Florida State. Virginia has lost four of their last six games and escaped with a 65-63 overtime win at Wake Forest on Sunday thanks to a 12-point rally in the second half to force the extra five minutes. Florida State is on a roll right now, winners of 10 in a row and are just a half-game behind Louisville for the ACC lead. The Seminoles avoided an upset on Saturday with an 85-84 victory over a 2-6 Notre Dame team. One of Florida State’s wins in their current streak came at home to Virginia, a 54-50 victory as 6.5-point favorites, making it two in a row in the series, although they’re just 1-3 ATS in the past four meetings.
Sophomore forward Wyatt Wilkes scored a career-high 19 points in just 19 minutes to help Florida State survive the upset bid by the Fighting Irish on Saturday. Wilkes had only scored in double-figures once prior to Saturday and is averaging 3.2 points but exploded by hitting 5-of-6 from 3-point land. Sophomore guard Devin Vassell is the team’s leading scorer (13.1 per game) and rebounder (5.2) and produced 18 points in the win over Virginia earlier this month. Senior guard Trent Forrest averages 11.8 points and a team-leading 4.3 assists after recording seven helpers and four steals against Notre Dame. Sophomore guard Anthony Polite is averaging 11 points and 3.7 steals off the bench over his last three games. The Seminoles will be at Virginia Tech on Saturday.
It’s no secret that the Cavaliers can’t find the bottom of the basket and is the main reason they could be on the bubble. Tomas Woldetensae found his shooting touch on Sunday, going 7-of-14 from 3-point distance Sunday, but the rest of his teammates went 1-of-16. Virginia’s overall mark from long distance is 26.8 percent – 344th nationally. Forward Mamadi Diakite leads the team in scoring (13.2) and was the lone Cavalier to score in double figures with 16 points in the loss to Florida State a few weeks ago. Senior Braxton Key looks to bounce back from a 2-of-16 effort versus the Demon Deacons and is averaging 10.0 points on the season. Virginia is off for a week before hosting Clemson on Feb. 5.
I can’t put my hard-earned money on this Virginia offense. I don’t care how good their defense is. Florida State is a much better team and the Cavaliers don’t have much of a homecourt advantage.
Pick: Florida State +1
Seminoles are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 Tuesday games.
Seminoles are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.
Seminoles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Seminoles are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
Seminoles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
Cavaliers are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games as an underdog.
Cavaliers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss.
Cavaliers are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
Cavaliers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Cavaliers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win.
Over is 4-0 in Seminoles last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 18-4 in Seminoles last 22 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Over is 4-1 in Seminoles last 5 overall.
Over is 4-1 in Seminoles last 5 games following a straight up win.
Over is 4-1 in Seminoles last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 4-1 in Seminoles last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 11-3 in Seminoles last 14 games as a road favorite.
Over is 19-7 in Seminoles last 26 Tuesday games.
Under is 20-8 in Seminoles last 28 road games.
Under is 6-1 in Cavaliers last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 18-3 in Cavaliers last 21 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Under is 21-6 in Cavaliers last 27 games as a home underdog.
Under is 37-14 in Cavaliers last 51 games as an underdog.
Under is 42-19 in Cavaliers last 61 Tuesday games.
Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
